以问题导向的制度建构应对重大风险的不确定性——美国1918年大流感应对的教训与启示  

Problem-Oriented Institutional Construction to Deal with Uncertainties in Major Risk——Lessons and Enlightenments from the 1918 Pandemic Response in the United States

作　　者：李明[1,2] Li Ming

机构地区：[1]中央党校(国家行政学院)应急管理教研部 [2]清华大学中国应急管理研究基地

出　　处：《中国应急管理科学》2020年第2期62-73,共12页Journal of China Emergency Management Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“改革开放四十年重大制度变迁的问题导向与改革方案文本的关系研究”(18BZZ074)

摘　　要：美国1918年大流感经历了当年春季、秋冬季和1919年春季的三波流行,造成了大量人员死亡。三波疫情中的一些失败的应对措施教训深刻,尤其是第一波结束后对欧洲染病人员回流放松警惕,带来第二波的高死亡率,更是教训惨痛。本文在分析美国当年疫情快速扩散与国际政治、国内经济社会环境、交通方式、信息通信、卫生环境等背景的关系基础上,反思美国三波疫情及其应对过程,并提出了以问题导向的制度建构应对重大风险不确定性的几方面启示。The 1918 pandemic in the United States experienced three epidemics in the spring,autumn and winter,and spring of 1919,causing huge deaths.Some of the countermeasures in the three waves of epidemics have profound lessons,especially the relaxation of vigilance against the return of infected people in Europe after the first wave,which has brought the second wave of a higher mortality,which was even more painful.Based on the analysis of the relationship among the rapid spread of the US epidemic,international politics,domestic economic and social environment,transportation methods,information communication,and health environment,this article explains three waves of the US epidemic and its response process,then proposes a problem-oriented institutional construction enlightenments in dealing with the uncertainty of major risks.

关 键 词：1918年大流感 问题导向 制度建构 美国 启示 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]