电动化转型对车载铅蓄电池溯源潜力影响评估  

Life-cycle Traceability of Automotive Lead-acid Batteries Under the Transition Towards Electric Mobility

作　　者：童昕[1] 孙文昊 彭佳辉 陆潘涛 戴瀚程 王佳[3] 张德元[4] 黎宇科[3] TONG Xin;SUN Wenhao;PENG Jiahui;LU Pantao;DAI Hancheng;WANG Jia;ZHANG Deyuan;LI Yuke(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;China Automotive Technology and Research Center,Tianjin 300300,China;China Institute for Reform and Development,Beijing 100035,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [2]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871 [3]中国汽车技术研究中心有限公司,天津300300 [4]国家发展和改革委员会经济体制与管理研究所,北京100035

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2022年第5期1071-1085,共15页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1902701);国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(72061137071)

摘　　要：汽车电动化和智能化转型可提高产品全生命周期溯源管理的效率和精细水平,有助于改进相关材料的回收和循环利用.以车载铅蓄电池为例,首先基于综合系统模型,预测不同电动化转型情境下,中国2020~2050年电动汽车和燃油汽车的社会保有量、新增量、废弃量以及市场占有率;其次,根据当前电动汽车市场发展的区域差异,预估各省电动车和燃油汽车保有水平差异,据此测算不同类型车辆车载铅蓄电池所占比重;第三,对比当前铅蓄电池再利用能力的空间分布,探讨基于电动车溯源机制重塑铅蓄电池全生命周期管理体系的可行性.结果显示:(1)加速电动化转型有利于废弃铅蓄电池的减量化:在较低的电动化转型速度下,全国车载铅蓄电池保持逐年增长趋势,至2050年累积产生量可达8800×10^(4)t;而较快的电动化转型则显著降低车载蓄电池报废总量,至2050年累积产生量降至6500×10^(4)t左右,减量幅度超过1/4.(2)无论高速电动化转型还是低速电动化转型,报废车载铅蓄电池的空间分布不均衡状态并不会发生根本改变,未来30a废弃铅酸蓄电池仍将集中在经济发达的城市群地区.(3)车载铅蓄电池报废数量的空间分布与铅蓄电池回收处置能力的空间分布存在较大差异,目前车载铅蓄电池回收处理能力的空间分布是适应传统个体回收为主的多级转运体系的结果,流转过程复杂,跨区流动现象突出,导致非法回收渠道难以监管控制.结论指出,结合新能源汽车动力电池回收利用的溯源体系建设,实现铅蓄电池全生命周期溯源管理,有助于提升回收循环产业链的透明度,减少流转环节,促进废弃产品就近回收处理.因此,有必要在汽车生产者责任延伸制度的框架内纳入铅蓄电池等相关环境敏感物质的管控,并配合汽车产品的全生命周期循环体系建设,优化铅蓄电池回收处理能力布局.The technological transition towards electrical vehicle has improved the life cycle traceability of automobile products,which can help to enhance the efficiency of recycling for all automobile-related materials.Taking the automotive lead-acid batteries as an example,this research uses the integrated environment and social-economic system model to predict the changing market share of electric vehicles(EVs)and fossil fuel-powered internal combustion engine vehicles(ICE vehicles)in China from 2020 to 2050 under two scenarios:fast and slow transition towards electronification.Second,estimate the proportion of automotive lead-acid batteries for EV and ICE vehicles respectively at provincial level weighted by the ownership of electric vehicles and fuel vehicles.Third,the spatial distribution of forecast waste automotive lead-acid batteries is compared with the spatial location of lead-acid battery recycling capacity.The results show that:(1)Under the slow EV transition,the number of discarded automotive lead-acid batteries will keep growing,and the cumulative production will reach 88.17 million tons by 2050;while under the fast EV transition,the cumulative production by 2050 will be 64.99 million tons.(2)The spatial distribution of end-of-life automotive lead-acid batteries is uneven,mainly concentrated in developed coastal regions.(3)The current spatial distribution of recycling capacity,which resulted from the complex multilayer collection channels,highly deviated from the future generation of end-of-life lead-acid batteries.The conclusion suggests that the tracking system for EVs should incorporate the automotive lead-acid batteries under the extended producer responsibility scheme to construct a collaborative takeback system between lead-acid battery producers and automotive industry.

关 键 词：铅蓄电池 产品全生命周期溯源 电动汽车 生产者责任延伸 回收体系 

分 类 号：U469.72[机械工程—车辆工程]