公路网合理规模预测和评价方法研究  

Prediction and Evaluation Method of Reasonable Scale of Highway Network

作　　者：刘雄伟 LIU Xiong-wei(Shanxi Transportation Technology Research&Development Co.,Ltd.,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030032,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省交通科技研发有限公司,山西太原030032

出　　处：《山西交通科技》2020年第3期44-46,58,共4页Shanxi Science & Technology of Transportation

摘　　要：在探析公路网规模影响因素和发达国家公路建设发展规律的基础上,分析预测公路网总里程的各种方法的优缺点,并采取综合模型法对传统预测模型预测结果进行优化,并建立指标体系,采用模糊多层次综合评判法对预测结果进行评价。根据实例验证,提出的方法具有良好的科学性和可操作性。Based on research of the effect factors of highway network scale and the development law of national highway construction in developed countries,the advantages and disadvantages of various methods for predicting the total length of highway networks were analyzed,and the comprehensive model method was adopted to optimize the prediction results of the traditional prediction model.The indicator system was established.The fuzzy multi-level comprehensive evaluation method was applied to evaluate the prediction results.According to the example,the method proposed in this paper is scientific and feasible.

关 键 词：公路网规模 综合模型法 指标体系 模糊多层次综合评判法 

分 类 号：U412.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]