中国金融稳定指数构建、形势分析与预判  

Construction,Analysis and Prejudgment of the Financial Stability Index of China

作　　者：王劲松 任宇航 Wang Jinsong;Ren Yuhang(School of Economics and Management,Hangzhou Normal University;School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学经济与管理学院 [2]浙江大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2021年第2期24-42,共19页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“资产价格波动对我国金融稳定影响的理论模型重构与实证研究(18AJY029)”的资助

摘　　要：研究目标:构建后金融危机时期我国金融稳定指数,进行历史走势分析与预判。研究方法:基于15项基础指标,运用主成分分析法和线性加权综合模型合成金融稳定指数。研究发现:金融稳定指数成功反映了包括新冠肺炎疫情暴发在内的国内外重大事件对我国金融稳定运行的冲击,并显示2009年以来我国金融稳定形势整体恶化且可以划分为四个阶段。滞后期的金融稳定指数对GDP增速具有显著正向影响。预测结果表明,我国金融稳定总体形势将在2020年第三季度疫情冲击减弱后恢复常态并保持平稳运行。研究创新:合成了能够充分反映后金融危机时期威胁我国金融稳定突出风险领域的金融稳定指数。研究价值:预判了金融稳定指数的走向,并从化解各领域金融风险的视角提出维护我国金融稳定的对策建议。Research Objectives:To synthesize the Financial Stability Index of China,analyze the historical trend of the index and predict its future trend.Research Methods:Based on fifteen basic indicators,the principal component analysis method and linear weighted comprehensive model are used to synthesize the financial stability index.Research Findings:The index successfully reflects the impact of major domestic and foreign events,including the COVID-19 outbreak,on China’s financial stability,and shows that the overall deterioration of China’s financial stability since 2009 and the financial stability can be divided into four stages.The financial stability index in the lag period has a significant and positive impact on GDP growth.The forecast results show that the overall financial stability will return to normal and maintain stable operation after the impact of the pandemic in the third quarter of 2020.Research Innovations:Synthesizing a financial stability index that can fully reflect the prominent risk areas that threaten China’s financial stability in the post-financial crisis period.Research Value:Prejudge the trend of the financial stability index,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to maintain financial stability from the perspective of tickling financial risks in various fields.

关 键 词：金融稳定指数 后金融危机时期 金融风险 主成分分析 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]