2014年以来国外贸易政策不确定性研究进展  

A Sketch of the Latest Researches on Trade Policy Uncertainty

作　　者：卢晓菲 LU Xiaofei

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所,上海200235

出　　处：《国外社会科学前沿》2020年第4期75-82,84,共9页JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“一带一路”倡议研究专项《“一带一路”沿线国别研究报告》(17VDL002)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：以英国硬脱欧、美国频频加税等为代表的单边主义和贸易保护主义,成为当今世界国际贸易的突出特点,这体现出贸易政策具有很大的不确定性。因此,贸易政策不确定性便成为近年来贸易领域的研究热点。该研究的核心观点是,市场中贸易政策不确定性的提高会降低企业进入的截断成本条件,进而抬高生产率门槛,减少企业进入,最终通过扩展边际抑制出口规模扩张。贸易政策不确定性的相关文献呈现出从具体贸易政策研究,逐渐转向贸易政策潜在波动性研究的新趋势。本文对贸易政策不确定性的起源、测度方法以及主要的理论和经验研究进行了综述,并对其未来的三个发展方向进行了分析。Unilateralism and protectionism represented by Britain’s hard Brexit and frequent increases in taxes by the United States have become prominent features of today’s international trade,which reflects a high degree of uncertainty on trade policy.Therefore,trade policy uncertainty has become a research focus in the field of trade in recent years.The main point of this research is that the increase of trade policy uncertainty will reduce the cut-off cost for enterprise entry while raises the threshold of productivity,and ultimately reduce the scale of exports by extensive margin.The related literature about trade policy uncertainty shows a new trend from the research of specific tariff policies and non-tariff barriers to the research of potential volatility of trade policies.This article reviews the origin,measurement methods,and main theoretical and empirical studies of trade policy uncertainty,and analyzes its three future development directions.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 贸易协定 关税潜在波动 非关税壁垒 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]