当前印巴“克什米尔争端”的新安全态势及其未来走向  

The Latest Security Situation and Future Development of“The Current Kashmir Dispute”between India and Pakistan

作　　者：余建华[1] 刘锦前[1] YU Jianhua;LIU Jinqian

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院国际问题研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《国外社会科学前沿》2020年第4期4-12,83,共10页JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题“中亚、南亚态势新发展与中国西部陆疆安全建设研究”(2018JG001-BGJ025)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：克什米尔位于中国、印度、巴基斯坦和阿富汗四国之间,具有极其重要的军事政治价值,印巴两国为此长期兵刃相见,而当地复杂的民族宗教关系又使得恐怖势力与大国博弈交错,长期给脆弱的社会发展带来负面冲击。目前印度以中央直辖方式实施"新政",推动建立克什米尔世俗秩序并扶植符合其期待的政权承继者。但在伊斯兰宗教土壤深厚的克什米尔,如若为迎合印度当局的世俗主义期待而策略性削减当地居民的宗教外在表达,那么克什米尔未来发展可能将面临潜在困境。一旦当地社会发展的预期目标没有如约实现,被压抑的民族宗教力量很可能在未来出现报复性排斥行为。为有效避免在克什米尔争端问题上误解和误判,对近半个世纪以来影响克什米尔争端的各类因素与相互关系进行重新梳理和审视显得极为必要。Surrounded by four countries of China,India,Pakistan and Afghanistan,Kashmir has an extremely important military and political value and be treated as the"heart of Asia"these years.In history,not only India but also Pakistan wanted to control it but at last failed,since there are too many different ethnic groups living in the region which is attracted to the terrorists and big powers to play game.This had brought negative impact on the fragile social development for a long time.Last year,India took"new policy"in the Kashmir region and wanted to establish the secular order and foster regime successors in line with its expectations.However,because of deeply-rooted Islamic religious tradition in Kashmir,once the external religious expression of local residents is strategically reduced to meet the secular expectations of the Indian authorities,the future development of Kashmir may face potential difficulties.If the expected goal of local political development is not achieved,the suppressed ethnic groups and religious forces may likely to have retaliatory actions in the future.It is not hard to trace back to find that the Kashmir dispute involved many factors such as nationality,religion,geopolitics,etc.Meanwhile,big powers always were interested in and liked to involve.In order to avoid misunderstandings and misjudgments on the Kashmir dispute,it is necessary to comment on the various factors and mutual relations that influenced the Kashmir dispute for nearly half a century.

关 键 词：克什米尔争端 群体认同 世俗秩序 宗教外在表达 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]