交通隧道火灾概率的动态量化研究  

Research on dynamic quantification method for the fire probability in traffic tunnel

作　　者：吴珂[1,2] 周倩 陈茗[1] 曹颖[4] 孙峰[5] 朱凯[3] WU Ke;ZHOU Qian;CHEN Ming;CAO Ying;SUN Feng;ZHU Kai(Research Center for Urban Fire Safety Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,Zhejiang,China;Research Center of Balance Architecture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310007,Zhejiang,China;College of Energy Environment and Safety Engineering,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310018,Zhejiang,China;Zhejiang University Urban-Rural Planning&Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou 310010,Zhejiang,China;China Railway Siyuan Survey and Design Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430063,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学城市火灾安全工程研究中心,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江大学平衡建筑研究中心,浙江杭州310007 [3]中国计量大学能源环境与安全工程学院,浙江杭州310018 [4]浙江大学城乡规划设计研究院有限公司,浙江杭州310010 [5]中铁第四勘察设计院集团有限公司,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《隧道与地下工程灾害防治》2024年第2期59-65,共7页Hazard Control in Tunnelling and Underground Engineering

基　　金：杭州市人工智能领域重大科技攻关资助项目(2022AIZD0057);浙江省重点研发资助项目(2018C03029)

摘　　要：针对隧道火灾事故的不可预见性,提出一种交通隧道火灾概率的动态量化方法,并结合统计分析法开展实例研究。基于隧道火灾原因统计,明确车辆为隧道火灾的主要致灾因素。考虑行驶状态及隧道环境影响,对各类型车辆的单车火灾频率进行修正,并结合隧道内车辆数,获取隧道内车辆火灾概率。综合由统计数据获取的隧道其他火灾概率,构建隧道火灾概率量化模型。选取两个隧道进行应用实例分析,获得隧道24 h的火灾概率分布,实现了火灾发生可能性的动态量化,可为隧道火灾实时风险识别和事故预防提供依据。Addressing the unpredictability of tunnel fire accidents,this paper presented a dynamic quantification approach to ascertain the probabilistic metrics of traffic tunnel fires,complemented by a statistical case study analysis.Causal analysis of tunnel fires identified vehicles as the principal disaster-inducing factors.Taking into account the conditions of the vehicles and the environmental impact within the tunnel,the individual fire frequency for each vehicle type was corrected.Then synthesizing above modification value with the number of vehicles inside the tunnel could obtain the tunnel's vehicle fire probability,which was amalgamated with the statistical probabilities of other incendiary events to construct a probabilistic quantification model for tunnel fires.Two empirical case studies analysis were conducted on a specific tunnel,resulting in the fire probability distribution within a 24-hour period.This achieved a dynamic quantification of the potential for fire occurrence,which provided a basis for real-time risk identification and accident prevention of tunnel fires.

关 键 词：交通隧道 车辆火灾 火灾概率 动态量化 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]