海南岛历史风暴潮模拟和灾害风险评估  

Simulation of historical storm surge and hazard assessment around Hainan Island

作　　者：赵广生 牛小静[1] Guang-sheng Zhao;Xiao-jing Niu(State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《水动力学研究与进展（A辑）》2022年第6期831-836,共6页Chinese Journal of Hydrodynamics

基　　金：水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室自主课题(2022-KY-05)

摘　　要：台风风暴潮是我国沿海主要灾害,评估沿海地区的风暴潮灾害风险有助于沿岸防灾减灾和工程设计。该文针对海南岛沿岸的风暴潮灾害,采用历史情景再现的方式进行了研究。该文收集了1970年至2020年间影响海南岛的历史台风数据,通过海洋水动力模型FVCOM构建台风风暴潮模型,模拟再现了这51年间的台风风暴潮过程,并通过与2014年的两场风暴潮过程的实测水位进行对比。结果表明,模拟结果精度良好。进而,基于模拟结果对历史风暴潮进行了统计分析,给出了海南岛周边历史风暴潮最高水位的空间分布和统计特征,初步对海南沿岸的风暴潮灾害进行了评估。Typhoon storm surge is a major disaster in coastal areas of China.Assessing the storm surge hazard in coastal areas is helpful to coastal disaster prevention and engineering design.In this paper,the storm surge hazard along the coast of Hainan Island is studied by the reproduction of historical scenarios.The historical typhoon data affecting Hainan Island from1970 to 2020 are collected.FVCOM is used to construct the typhoon storm surge model to simulate and reproduce the typhoon storm surge process in these 51 years.Compared with the measured water levels of two storm surge processes in 2014,the simulation results show good accuracy.Based on the simulation results,the historical storm surge is statistically analyzed.The spatial distribution and statistical characteristics of the highest water level around Hainan Island during the historical storm surge events are given,and the storm surge hazard along the coast is preliminarily assessed.

关 键 词：台风风暴潮 FVCOM 海南岛 统计分析 数值再现 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]