代理家计调查、农村低保瞄准精度和减贫效应——基于中国家庭金融调查的实证研究  

Proxy Means Tests Analysis of Rural Dibao’s Targeting Performance and Anti-poverty Effectiveness: Empirical Study based on China Household Finance Survey

作　　者：韩华为[1] Han Huawei(School of Social Development and Public Policy,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学社会发展与公共政策学院

出　　处：《社会保障评论》2021年第2期93-109,共17页Chinese Social Security Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国农村低保救助的瞄准、减贫效应和行为激励研究”(71703008)

摘　　要：基于2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,本文基于回归模型构建了系统性代理家计调查框架,并且综合使用多种瞄准和贫困测度指标严格检验了代理家计调查方法在改善农村低保瞄准精度和减贫效应方面的表现。研究结果表明,采用代理家计调查方法能够显著改善农村低保的贫困瞄准精度和减贫效应。进一步分析表明,代理家计调查在降低错保偏误方面的效果大于其在降低漏保偏误方面的效果。代理家计调查在改善低保瞄准精度和减贫效应方面的作用在中西部地区更为显著。当设置较高的项目覆盖率时,代理家计调查在控制漏保偏误并促进减贫方面有更强的效力。因此,在包括农村低保在内的扶贫政策中引入代理家计调查方法有助于提升其瞄准精度和减贫效应。Using the CHFS 2017 rural dataset,this study proposes a proxy means tests(PMT)framework based on OLS regression models.Then this study tests the ef fects of PMT method on improving rural dibao’s targeting performance and anti-poverty effectiveness based on a rich set of targeting and poverty measures.The results show that PMT method has a significant impact on improving rural dibao’s targeting performance and anti-poverty ef fectiveness.Further analysis shows that the ef fect of PMT on reducing inclusion errors is greater than that on reducing exclusion errors.The ef fect of PMT on improving the targeting performance and anti-poverty ef fectiveness is more significant in central and western regions than in eastern regions.With a high dibao coverage rate,PMT is more likely to reduce exclusion errors and promote anti-poverty ef fects.The results suggest that the introduction of PMT in anti-poverty policy,such as rural dibao program,will improve targeting performance and anti-poverty ef fectiveness.

关 键 词：农村低保 代理家计调查 瞄准精度 减贫效应 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济] F832