基于Bayes概率模型的圆钢管混凝土短柱轴压承载力计算  

Calculation of Compressive Capacity of Concrete Filled Circular Steel Tubular Column Based on Bayes Probabilistic Model

作　　者：吕贝贝 何晓升 高峰[1] 谭朝明 曲广龙 LYU Beibei;HE Xiaosheng;GAO Feng;TAN Zhaoming;QU Guanglong(School of Architecture and Geomatics Engineering,Shanxi Datong University,Datong 037003,China;School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;State Key Laboratory of Mining Disaster Prevention and Control Co-founded by Shandong Province and the Ministry of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China)

机构地区：[1]山西大同大学建筑与测绘工程学院,山西大同037003 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)力学与建筑工程学院,北京100083 [3]山东科技大学矿山灾害预防控制省部共建国家重点实验室培育基地,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《煤矿安全》2020年第2期225-230,共6页Safety in Coal Mines

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(51474218);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51704180);山西大同大学青年基金资助项目(2018Q6).

摘　　要：为准确进行圆钢管混凝土轴心受压短柱抗压承载能力估算,运用无信息先验分布贝叶斯多元线性参数估计方法,建立了基于影响参数的圆钢管混凝土短柱贝叶斯概率抗压模型。基于该模型及170组圆钢管混凝土短柱抗压试验结果,完成了模型参数计算及基于贝叶斯理论的试件轴心受压承载力计算,并利用贝叶斯参数剔除方法对模型进行简化,进而得到简化概率模型。与GB 50396—2014《钢管混凝土结构技术规范》、AISC360—2010美国钢结构协会规范以及AIJ—SRC01日本建筑协会规范等现有规范计算结果相比,利用贝叶斯概率统计方法建立的基于影响参数的圆钢管混凝土短柱抗压模型计算结果与试验值更接近,吻合性更好,能较为合理的进行圆钢管混凝土轴心受压短柱抗压承载力计算。To estimate the compressive capacity of concrete filled circular steel tubular column,a compressive model for concrete filled circular steel tubular columns based on influence parameters is developed by using Bayesian multivariate statistical theory and the collected 170 test results.The model is simplified through the Bayesian parameters removal process.And the performance of the developed probabilistic model is confirmed by comparing with the calculation results of existing codes such as Technical Specification for Concrete Tubular Structures(GB 50396-2014),AISC360-2010 of American Society for Steel Structures and AIJ-SRC01 of Japanese Building Society.Good agreement between the compressive strengths obtained by the simplified model based on Bayesian and test results is achieved.And the results updating Bayesian dynamic are closer to the tests than the code.The simplified model can be used in calculating compressive strength for concrete filled circular steel tubular columns.

关 键 词：贝叶斯参数估计 影响参数 圆钢管混凝土短柱 轴心受压 

分 类 号：TU398.9[建筑科学—结构工程]