大国博弈、国际秩序与米尔斯海默的历史逻辑  

Great Power Game,International Order and Mearsheimer’s Historical Logic

作　　者：刘德斌[1] Liu Debin

机构地区：[1]吉林大学国际关系研究所,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《思想理论战线》2022年第4期80-85,141,共7页Front of Thought and Theory

摘　　要：俄乌冲突爆发以来,国际关系发生了历史性变化,一种新的国际政治格局正在形成之中。冷战后,福山预言的“历史的终结”并未出现,查尔斯·克劳塞默判定的“单极时刻”也在消失,而米尔斯海默警示的“大国政治的悲剧”却正在重演。在米尔斯海默看来,国际政治就是大国政治,国际体系的无政府状态驱使大国为了生存与安全而追求权力最大化,但任何国家都难以取得全球霸权,大国之间处于永无休止的竞争状态,而这就是大国政治的悲剧和大国兴衰的历史逻辑。21世纪国际关系的发展变化,特别是美国作为世界唯一超级大国地位的坍塌和大国关系的恶化,似乎验证了米尔斯海默“进攻性现实主义”的历史逻辑。事实上,米尔斯海默的历史研究和逻辑推理是典型的西方中心论的产物。中美博弈或将成为两种不同历史逻辑的博弈,这就要求中国的国际关系理论家在阐释中国对外政策时能够超越米尔斯海默的视野,更多地汲取非西方世界的历史经验,构建起一种新的大国兴衰与博弈的阐释体系。Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,international relations are undergoing historic changes,and a new international political pattern is taking shape.After the Cold War,the"end of history"predicted by Fukuyama did not appear,and the"unipolar moment"determined by Charles Clausmer disappeared,while the"tragedy of great power politics"warned by Mearsheimer was repeating itself.In Mearsheimer’s view,international politics is the politics of great powers.The anarchy of the international system drives great powers to seek maximum power for survival and security,but it is difficult for any country to achieve global hegemony,and great powers are in an endless competition.This is the tragedy of great power politics and the historical logic of the rise and fall of great powers.The development and changes of international relations in the 21 st century,especially the collapse of the United States’status as the world’s only superpower and the deterioration of relations between major powers,seem to verify the historical logic of Mearsheimer’s"offensive realism".In fact,Mearsheimer’s historical research and logical reasoning are typical products of Western-centrism.The game between China and the United States may become a game of two different historical logics,which requires Chinese international relations theorists to go beyond Mearsheimer’s vision when interpreting China’s foreign policy and construct a new historical logic that surpasses Western centralism.

关 键 词：大国博弈 国际关系 国际政治 自由主义霸权 米尔斯海默 

分 类 号：D80[政治法律—政治学]