人工智能一定会降低我国劳动收入份额吗?  

Will Artificial Intelligence Certainly Reduce Chinese Labor Income Share?

作　　者：丁建勋 罗润东[2] 张鑫 沈羽 Dingjianxun;Luo Rundong;Zhang Xin;Shen Yu

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学商学院 [2]山东大学劳动经济与人力资源研究中心

出　　处：《劳动经济评论》2022年第2期23-39,共17页Labor Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“异质性人工智能模式对人力资本的结构性替代与再配置效应研究”(项目编号:72073082);山东省社会科学规划研究项目“基建序贯投资转向对山东省高质量发展路径演进的影响及其机理研究”(项目编号:21CJJJ04)的资助

摘　　要：人工智能究竟会对要素收入分配格局产生何种影响,学术界并未达成共识。鉴于此,本文首先构建了一个两部门模型,研究了人工智能对劳动收入份额的影响。理论分析结果表明,人工智能对劳动收入份额的影响并不能简单确定,可能会存在正向、负向或“U”形或倒“U”形非线性影响。其次,基于我国2005~2017年以及2015~2020年的省级面板数据,检验了人工智能对我国劳动收入份额的影响。实证研究结果发现,人工智能降低了我国劳动收入份额。再次,从人工智能蕴含和引致的异质型技术进步视角,进一步研究了人工智能抑制劳动收入份额的深层次原因。基于我国省级面板数据的中介效应分析结果显示,我国人工智能蕴含的技术进步降低了劳动收入份额,其引致的技术进步主要融合在资本中,也降低了劳动收入份额。最后,提出应加大研发力度以及协调各方力量联合进行人工智能研发以缓解劳动收入份额下降的应对之策。The academic community has not reached a consensus on the impact of artificial intelligence on the pattern of factor income distribution.Firstly,this paper constructs a two sector model to study the impact of artificial intelligence on labor income share.The results of theoretical analysis show that the impact of artificial intelligence on labor income share can not be simply determined,and there may be positive,negative or U-shaped or inverted U-shaped nonlinear effects.Secondly,based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2017 and 2015 to 2020,this paper tests the impact of artificial intelligence on China’s labor income share.The empirical results show that AI reduces the share of labor income in China.Thirdly,from the perspective of heterogeneous technological progress contained and caused by AI,this paper further studies the deep-seated reasons why AI inhibits the share of labor income.The intermediary effect analysis results based on China’s provincial panel data show that the technological progress contained in China’s artificial intelligence reduces the share of labor income,and the resulting technological progress is mainly integrated into capital and reduces the share of labor income.Finally,it puts forward that we should strengthen R&D and coordinate all forces to jointly carry out artificial intelligence R&D in order to alleviate the decline of labor income share.

关 键 词：人工智能 劳动收入份额 技术进步 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F249.2