中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望  

China’s Energy and Important Mineral Resources Demand Perspective

作　　者：王安建[1] 高芯蕊[2] WANG Anjian;GAO Xinrui(Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,,Beijing 100037,China;The Geological Museum of China,Beijing 100034,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院全球矿产资源战略研究中心,北京100037 [2]中国地质博物馆,北京100034

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2020年第3期338-344,共7页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：中国科学院学部咨询评议项目(2019-ZW04-A-007).

摘　　要：在总结70年来我国能源与重要矿产资源消费历史的基础上,阐述了能源和重要矿产资源消费支撑经济社会发展机理和增长的极限理论,强调人均能源和矿产资源消费量是一个国家经济发展水平的标识。展望未来15年我国能源和重要矿产资源需求:重要大宗矿产资源消费将在2025年前陆续到达峰值;一次能源消费将在2030年前后到达拐点,战略性关键矿产资源消费将迎来快速增长期;2035年前,中国作为全球能源和重要矿产资源第一消费大国、生产大国和贸易大国的地位和态势将难以改变,需积极应对各种可能的挑战。This paper summarizes the history of energy and important mineral resources consumption in China in the past 70 years,expounds the mechanism of energy and important mineral resources consumption supporting economic and social development and the theory of"limit of growth",and forecasts China’s demand for energy and important mineral resources in the next 15 years.In this paper,it is points out that the consumption of mineral resources will reach the peak around 2025,and that primary energy consumption will reach turning point around 2030,the consumption of critical mineral resources will enter a period of rapid growth.Before 2035,China’s status and situation as the world’s largest consumer,producer,and trade country of energy and important mineral resources will not be able to change,and it is necessary to actively respond to various possible challenges.

关 键 词：能源资源 矿产资源 消费历史 增长极限 需求展望 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F426.1