粤港澳大湾区城市群产业转型及其空间优化研究——基于动态集聚与偏离—份额视角  

Industrial Development and Its Spatial Evolution in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area City Cluster——Perspective Based on Dynamic Agglomeration and Shift-Share Method

作　　者：吴磊[1] 杨登宇 傅帅雄[3] Wu Lei;Yang Dengyu;Fu Shuaixiong

机构地区：[1]湖南大学建筑与规划学院城乡规划系 [2]中国人民大学经济学院 [3]北京大学光华管理学院

出　　处：《开发性金融研究》2023年第2期13-22,共10页Development Finance Research

摘　　要：在新发展格局下,粤港澳大湾区是国内大循环和国际循环相互促进的典型区域,其产业转型升级与空间优化是支撑湾区城市群高质量发展的关键。对粤港澳大湾区11个城市的产业结构,尤其是珠三角制造业的空间演变及其区位竞争力进行分析,结果表明:湾区内部产业发展梯度明显,具有产业层次的多元性和产业结构的多样化;随着不同类型制造业的集聚与扩散以及区域竞争力的变化,珠三角在制造业领域出现了诸多层次不一的中心,区域的“多中心”格局以及“核心—边缘”结构得到进一步强化,其总体产业分工格局将越来越趋向均衡化和合理化。未来产业发展亟须构建“9+2>11”涌现性产业发展模式,形成优势互补、协调有序的区域产业系统。Under the new development pattern,the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is a typical area where domestic circulation and international circulation promote each other.Its industrial transformation and spatial optimization are the keys to supporting the high-quality development of urban agglomeration in the Bay Area.The paper analyzes the industrial structure of 11 cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,especially the spatial evolution and location competitiveness of the manufacturing industry in the Pearl River Delta.The results show that the industrial development gradient within the Bay Area is obvious,with the diversity of the industry level and the diversification of the industry structure.With the agglomeration and diffusion of different types of manufacturing industries and changes in regional competitiveness,many centers with different levels have emerged in the Pearl River Delta in the manufacturing field,with a regional“polycenter”pattern and a“core-periphery”structure.For further strengthened,its overall industrial division of labor will become more and more balanced and rationalized.The future industrial development urgently needs to build a“9+2>11”emerging industry development model,and form a regional industrial system with complementary advantages and a coordinated and orderly manner.

关 键 词：粤港澳大湾区 产业空间演变 动态集聚 偏离—份额法 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]