大变局下的欧洲——欧元区实际汇率的变化对劳动生产率的影响  

Europe under the Great Change——The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Changes on Labour Productivity in the Euro Area

作　　者：刁莉[1,2] 吴婉秋 徐丹 Diao Li;Wu Wanqiu;Xu Dan

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [2]武汉大学欧洲问题研究中心 [3]日本早稻田大学经济系 [4]武汉大学经济与管理学院经济学基地

出　　处：《开发性金融研究》2022年第4期60-70,共11页Development Finance Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大研究专项项目:“一带一路”建设面临的政治风险、经济风险、安全风险、经营风险及应对研究,项目编号:18VDL016

摘　　要：近年来欧洲经济发展低迷,影响欧洲经济发展的原因是多样的,本文从欧洲汇率和劳动生产率的角度分析了影响欧洲经济发展的一个要素。汇率和劳动生产率之间的关系是一个复杂的关系,为了确定实际汇率通过直接或间接各种渠道对劳动生产率增长的影响,本文将实际汇率变化与出口和资本密集度相互作用,选取了数据运行比较稳定的年限1995—2019年。结果表明,在此期间,欧元实际汇率升值会降低劳动生产率的增长。实际汇率对劳动生产率的直接影响甚至大于间接影响,实际汇率可以通过出口与资本密集度这两个渠道变量间接地影响劳动生产率。其中通过出口造成的影响是正向的,而通过资本密集度造成的影响是负向的。基于此,本文认为欧洲央行应推行一定的货币政策来避免欧元实际汇率过度走高,在当前的形势下适度调整与劳动生产率的关系。The Economic development of Europe has been depressed in recent years.In today’s world,there are various reasons influencing European economic development.This paper analyzes one factor influencing European economic development from the perspective of European exchange rate and labor productivity.The relationship between the exchange rate and labor productivity is a complex relationship.In order to determine the real exchange rate influence on labour productivity growth through various channels directly or indirectly,we interact real exchange rate changes with exports and capital intensity and select the years 1995-2019,when the data runs relatively stable,and results show that during this period,an appreciation of the real exchange rate of the euro reduces labour productivity growth.The direct impact of the real exchange rate on labor productivity is even greater than the indirect impact.The real exchange rate can indirectly affect labor productivity through two channel variables:exports and capital intensity.The influence caused by exports is positive,while the influence caused by capital intensity is negative.Based on this,this paper concludes that the European Central Bank should implement certain monetary policies to avoid excessive rise in the real exchange rate of Euro and moderate the relationship with labor productivity under the current situation.

关 键 词：欧洲 实际汇率 劳动生产率 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学] F249.1