2022年上半年中国经济回顾与下半年经济展望  

Review of China’s Economy in the First Half of 2022 and Economic Outlook in the Second Half

作　　者：黄群慧[1] 杨耀武 Huang Qunhui;Yang Yaowu

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所

出　　处：《开发性金融研究》2022年第4期3-14,共12页Development Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BTJ059)的支持

摘　　要：2022年上半年,面对国内外超预期因素冲击,我国高效统筹新冠肺炎疫情防控与经济社会发展,在爬坡过坎中实现了经济的企稳回升。展望下半年,随着全球货币政策总体趋于收紧,全球经济增速可能趋缓,国际贸易总量增速趋于下降,新兴市场和发展中经济体脆弱性上升。全球经济在2021年出现反弹式复苏后,今明两年增速将趋于下降。这一态势不仅表现在发达经济体中,也会在新兴和发展中经济体中有所体现。只有正确认识这样的世界经济发展大势,才能对我国当下的经济发展状况作出客观理性的评价。目前来看,今明两年我国与发达国家仍存在较高的经济增长差,对此要有充分信心,同时我们要对当下自身经济中存在的问题予以高度关注:一是要全面客观认识我国经济恢复的力度和节奏;二是我国产业链上下游的利润分配格局尚未改善;三是我国并未进入“资产负债表衰退”状态,但存在资产估值调整的风险。综合上半年我国经济增速以及下半年内外需求可能的变化态势,我们预计,如果新冠肺炎疫情防控形势总体稳定,2022年下半年中国GDP增速可能会向潜在增速靠拢;物价方面,CPI则将在较小范围内波动,全年涨幅在2.0%左右;PPI则将继续逐步回落,但回落速度可能受国际形势影响。考虑到下半年我国经济增长内生动力仍相对疲软,需要发挥财政政策有效弥补社会需求不足的作用,持续发挥投资在稳定经济增长中的关键性作用,同时带动实体企业投资预期收益率上升和居民收入增长,激发微观主体活力,增强经济增长的内生动力。In the first half of this year,facing the impact of unexpected factors at home and abroad,China achieved economic stability and quick recovery.Looking ahead to the second half of this year,global economic growth may slow down,the growth rate of total international trade tends to decline,and the vulnerability of emerging markets and developing economies increases.At present,the momentum of global economic growth has been greatly weakened by the COVID-19 and the Ukraine crisis.After the rebound recovery of the global economy in 2021,the growth rate will tend to decline this year and the next.This trend will be reflected not only in developed economies,but also in emerging and developing economies.Only by correctly understanding such a world economic situation can we make an objective and rational evaluation of China’s current economic development.At present,the relatively high economic growth gap between China and developed countries this year and next is still there.At the same time,we should pay close attention to the problems in our own economy.First,we should comprehensively and objectively understand the strength and rhythm of China’s economic recovery;Second,the profit distribution pattern in the upstream and downstream of China’s industrial chain has not been improved;Third,China has not entered the state of“balance sheet recession”,but there is a risk of asset valuation adjustment.Considering China’s economic growth in the first half of 2022 and the possible changes in domestic and foreign demand in the second half of this year,we predict that if the COVID-19 prevention and control situation is generally stable,China’s GDP growth in the second half of 2022 may approach the potential growth rate.In terms of price,CPI will fluctuate within a small range,with an annual increase of about 2.0%;PPI continues to decline gradually,but the rate of decline may be affected by the evolution of international geopolitical conflicts.Considering that the endogenous power of China’s economic growth is still

关 键 词：上半年经济形势回顾 下半年经济展望 政策探讨 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]