开放情形下债券发行影响因素识别与国际比较——人民币国际化和政策协同视角的研究  

Identification and International Comparison of the Influencing Factors of Bond Issuance in the Open Environment——A study of RMB Internationalization and Policy Coordination

作　　者：郭栋[1] Guo Dong

机构地区：[1]国家开发银行资金部

出　　处：《开发性金融研究》2021年第2期19-30,共12页Development Finance Research

摘　　要：本文基于灰度系统的分析框架,对中美债券发行量的影响因素进行了相对关联度和实际脉冲效应的分析,得到以下主要结论:(1)我国债券发行政策性影响大,财政赤字、贸易顺差和货币政策是政府类债券的主要影响因素,均强于GDP;(2)国债和企业债发行存在差异,企业债对汇率、股市等市场因素更敏感;(3)中美比较反映我国债市传导效率仍需提高,基于人民币国际化视角判读,中美债市机理有别。政策建议:(1)利率市场化改革消除政策传导梗阻,提升债券市场对实体经济发展的融资支持;(2)人民币国际化提升国际货币职能,国际收支平衡增强货币政策独立性;(3)构建在岸市场的货币回流机制,推进国债市场渐进式开放。Based on the analysis framework of gray system,this paper analyzes the relative correlation and the actual pulse effect of the influencing factors of bond issuance in China and the United States,and obtains the following main conclusions:(1)China’s macro policy has a great influence on bond issuance,and the influence of fiscal,monetary policy and foreign exchange occupation on the increase of money supply is stronger than that of GDP;(2)There are differences between the issuance of government bonds and corporate bonds,and corporate bonds are more sensitive to market factors such as exchange rate and stock market;(3)the comparison between China and the United States shows that the transmission efficiency of China’s bond market still needs to be improved,which is different from the mechanism of U.S.bonds from the perspective of RMB internationalization.The policy suggestions of this paper are as follows:(1)the reform of interest rate marketization can eliminate the obstruction of policy transmission,improve the financing support of bond market to the development of real economy;(2)the internationalization of RMB can enhance the function of international currency,and the balance of payments can enhance the independence of monetary policy;(3)the monetary return mechanism of onshore market can be built to promote the gradual opening of national debt market.

关 键 词：债券发行量 灰度系统分析 货币回流 人民币国际化 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F832.51