地方政府债务分析与预测  

An Analysis of Chinese Local Government Debt

作　　者：许云霄[1] 柯俊强 Xu Yunxiao;Ke Junqiang

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院

出　　处：《开发性金融研究》2020年第1期89-96,共8页Development Finance Research

摘　　要：全球主要经济体在近年来大幅扩张债务,宏观杠杆率显著提升。当前世界范围的疫情昭示着大多数国家的财政政策将会继续以刺激经济发展的政府债务为主导,政府债务风险问题亟须重视。本文主要以我国地方政府债务为分析对象,回顾了地方政府债务发展的历程及其规模变化,指出地方政府债务面临的主要问题以及地方融资平台可能发生的流动性风险,同时提出疫情冲击下关于地方政府债务问题的几点新思考,最后强调了政府债务风险管理的重要性。The major economies in the world have expanded their debt substantially in recent years,and their macro leverage ratio has increased signif icantly.The current worldwide COVID-19 epidemic indicates that most countries’f iscal policies will continue to be dominated by government debt to stimulate economic development,and the issue of government debt risk needs urgent attention.This article reviews the development process and scale changes of Chinese local government debt,points out the major problems currently faced by local government debt and the liquidity risk that may occur in local government f inancing platforms.Further,we put forward some new thoughts on local government debt under the impact of the epidemic and emphasize the importance of government debt risk management.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 财政政策 新冠肺炎疫情 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]