经济政策不确定性对中国入境旅游的影响  

Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Inbound Tourism Industry in China

作　　者：许陈生[1] 胡甜 XU Chensheng;HU Tian

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院

出　　处：《开放经济研究》2020年第1期50-71,共22页Open Economy

摘　　要：本文通过构建经济政策不确定性、宏观经济波动以及中国入境旅游的时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR),运用马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)估计对2000—2017年经济政策不确定性指数、GDP和中国入境旅游人数进行实证研究。结果表明:经济政策不确定性对宏观经济有短期的负向冲击,宏观经济波动对入境旅游存在短期的正向效应;而入境旅游受经济政策不确定性的直接冲击表现出明显的时变特征,并且该直接冲击的影响比通过宏观经济传导对入境旅游的间接冲击影响更加显著,且持续时期更长。This paper establishes a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model(TVP-VAR)to analyze the response of China’s inbound tourism to economic policy uncertainty and macro economy.Monthly data of economic policy uncertainty index,GDP and the number of foreign inbound tourists from 2000 to 2017 are applied by using MCMC method.The results show that economic policy uncertainty has a short-term negative impact on macroeconomic environment,and China’s inbound tourism will be positive impacted by macroeconomic fluctuation in the short term.On the same time,inbound tourism has a significant time-varying characteristic in response to the direct impact of economic policy uncertainty,and the impact of this direct impact is more significant and longer than the indirect impact on inbound tourism through macroeconomic transmission.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 中国入境旅游 TVP-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理] F120[经济管理—产业经济]