基于传播动力学模型的供应链可靠性分析  

Supply Chain Reliability Analysis Based On Propagation Dynamics Model

作　　者：刘正元 李芃萱 王超 LIU Zhengyuan;LI Pengxuan;WANG Chao(Unit 32329,Kashgar 844900,China;Unit 92758,Huludao 125000,China)

机构地区：[1]32329部队,新疆喀什844900 [2]92758部队,辽宁葫芦岛125000

出　　处：《军事交通学报》2023年第4期42-49,共8页Journal of Military Transportation University

摘　　要：为降低疫情对供应链的冲击,提高供应链可靠性,基于传播动力学模型,通过马尔可夫、蒙特卡罗的方式描述疫情在供应链中随机传播状态,以部队内实际发现感染人数占比作为部队停业指标,以客户满足度作为可靠性评价指标,建立供应链可靠性分析模型。同时根据初始感染者在供应链中位置的不同,探讨部队内部感染率及部队节点失效阈值对供应链可靠性的影响,并分析疫情冲击下网络度抗性。结果显示,降低部队内部感染比例,适度准备冗余库存,提高部队风险承受能力能够为供应链应对疫情带来的风险提供帮助。In order to reduce the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain and improve the reliability of the supply chain,this paper firstly describes the random transmission state of the epidemic in the supply chain by means of Markov Monte Carlo based on the transmission dynamics model.Then,it establishes the supply chain reliability analysis model by taking the proportion of the actual number of infected people in the army as the suspension index,and the customer satisfaction as the reliability evaluation index.Finally,according to the different positions of the initial infected persons in the supply chain,it discusses the influence of the infection rate within the army and the failure threshold of the army nodes on the supply chain reliability,and analyzes the network resistance under the impact of the epidemic.The results show that reducing the proportion of internal infection in the army,preparing redundant inventory moderately and improving the risk tolerance of the army could help the supply chain to cope with the risks brought by the epidemic.

关 键 词：供应链可靠性 传播动力学 马尔可夫 蒙特卡罗 

分 类 号：E257[军事—军事理论]