财政“四本账”视角下老龄化对地方财政可持续的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Aging on the Sustainability of Local Finance from the Perspective of Fiscal“Four-book account”

作　　者：刘力[1] 刘少华[1] 陈苗苗 贾镇燕 Liu Li;Liu Shaohua;Chen Miaomiao;Jia zhenyan(Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Branch,the People's Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行宁夏回族自治区分行

出　　处：《金融发展评论》2024年第2期1-17,共17页Financial Development Review

摘　　要：我国老龄化程度不断加深,扩大了养老、医疗等公共产品的需求,对财政支出及其结构调整产生了较大压力。近年来,地方财政可持续问题受到广泛关注,关注度最高的“四本账”即一般公共预算收支缺口、养老保险基金收支缺口、土地出让收支、地方政府债务收支。本文以我国31个省(直辖市、自治区)~((1))的面板数据为基础,考察老龄化对“四本账”的影响,结果表明:一是老龄化程度加深会扩大地方一般公共预算收支缺口和养老保险收支缺口,提高地方财政对土地出让收入和政府债务的依赖度;二是经济增速和人均GDP提高对于缩小一般公共预算收支缺口和养老保险收支缺口的作用非常显著;三是房价上涨会显著提高地方政府土地财政依赖度,一般公共预算收支缺口扩大会显著提高地方政府的债务依赖度。基于此,本文对我国2023-2050年的人口年龄结构进行预测,分析了未来老龄化对我国财政可持续的影响,并提出了针对性政策建议。The continuous deepening of China's aging population has increased the demand for public goods such as elderly care and healthcare,which has put significant pressure on fiscal expenditures and structural adjustments.The sustainability of local finance has received widespread attention,with the highest attention being paid to the“four books”,which include the general public budget revenue and expenditure gap,the pension insurance fund revenue and expenditure gap,land transfer revenue and expenditure,and local government debt in recent years.This article is based on panel data from 31 provinces in China's mainland to examine the impact of aging on the“four books”.The results show that:Firstly,deepening aging will expand the gap between local general public budget revenue and expenditure and the gap between pension insurance revenue and expenditure,and increase the dependence of local finance on land concession income and government debt;Secondly,the economic growth rate and per capita GDP increase have a significant effect on narrowing the gap between general public budget revenue and expenditure and the gap between pension insurance revenue and expenditure;Thirdly,the rise in housing prices will significantly increase the financial dependence of local governments on land,and the widening gap in general public budget revenue and expenditure will significantly increase the debt dependence of local governments.Based on this,this article predicts the age structure of China's population from 2023 to 2050,analyzes the impact of future aging on China's fiscal sustainability,and proposes targeted policy recommendations.

关 键 词：老龄化 财政可持续 财政“四本账” 老龄化预测 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学] D669.6[政治法律—政治学] F812.7[政治法律—中外政治制度]