“无现金社会”即将到来吗?——基于非现金支付对流通中的现金替代效应分析  

Is the Cashless Society on the Horizon? On the Cash Substitution Effect of Non-cash Payments in Circulation

作　　者：严文静 Yan Wenjing(Urumqi Central Sub-branch,the People's Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学金融学院 [2]中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行

出　　处：《金融发展评论》2021年第8期1-16,共16页Financial Development Review

基　　金：新疆社会科学基金项目(20BJY047);新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目(项目编号:XJUFE2021B004)的资助

摘　　要："无现金社会"即将到来吗?基于这个问题,本文从货币与支付的本质及关系入手,在鲍莫尔-托宾货币需求模型上拓展建立了考虑非现金支付发展水平的货币需求模型,通过回归分析脉冲响应图分析不同的非现金支付方式对现金的影响,最终测算了现金增量替代率和现金增量替代量。研究显示:(1)非现金支付对流通中的现金并不是表象上的"此消彼长"的替代关系,不同的非现金支付方式对现金的替代效应不同;(2)非现金支付对流通中的现金是一个从增量替代到存量替代的过程,近十年来现金增量替代率在4.5%左右;(3)2015年后,移动支付等新型非现金支付呈现井喷式发展,对现金的替代效应也同步增强,移动支付等新型非现金支付的健康发展显得尤为重要。Is a “cashless society” on the horizon?Based on this problem, this article obtains from the relationship between the nature of money and pay and, in baumol-tobin expand on the money demand model is established considering development level of non-cash payment money demand model, through the regression analysis, impulse response analysis the influence of different non-cash payment of cash, finally calculate cash incremental replacement rate and the incremental amount of alternative. The results show that :(1) non-cash payment does not substitute for cash in circulation, and different non-cash payment methods have different effect on cash substitution;(2) Non-cash payment is a process from incremental replacement to stock replacement for cash in circulation, and the incremental replacement rate of cash is about 4.5% in recent ten years;(3) After 2015, mobile payment and other new non-cash payments showed a blowout development, and the substitution effect on cash also increased simultaneously. The healthy development of mobile payment and other new non-cash payments became particularly important.

关 键 词：非现金支付 现金支付 替代效应 

分 类 号：F832.2[经济管理—金融学] F724.6