外部冲击对中亚和高加索地区经济金融的影响及应对分析  

The Impact of External Shocks on the Economy and Finance of Central Asia and the Caucasus and the Analysis

作　　者：庞秀萍 Pang Xiuping(School of Finance,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics;Urumqi Central Sub-branch,the People's Bank of China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学金融学院 [2]中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行 [3]新疆金融学会中亚研究中心

出　　处：《金融发展评论》2019年第7期95-109,共15页Financial Development Review

摘　　要：中亚和高加索地区是世界石油资源蕴藏量最丰富的地区之一,是欧亚大陆重要的交通枢纽、世界大国角逐的战略要地,其政治经济局势日益受到关注。2014年以来,石油价格降低及其主要贸易伙伴——俄罗斯经济低迷对该地区经济金融产生了严重冲击。本文基于此次外部冲击对该地区经济金融的影响及应对措施进行了研究分析,认为2014年以来的外部冲击主要通过出口减少、侨汇锐减、外债增加、汇率贬值四个维度对经济增长产生影响,并通过经济领域传导至金融业。此次外部冲击的应对实践表明,该地区国家在经济金融危机处置方面还存在很多短板,需要从经济金融多元化、金融支持经济普惠性增长、建立健全法制体系等方面加以强化。我国在强化与CCA区域各国合作中应着力从经贸、金融、监管三个方面予以推动。The Central Asian,together with the Caucasus,is one of the regions with the richest petroleum resources in the world.The area is the important transportation hub of Eurasia and the strategic location of the world’s major powers,and its political and economic situations have increasingly attracted worldwide attention.Due to some certain historical and practical causes,the region’s economic and financial development is far behind the world’s level.The simple domestic economic structure,dependent and incomplete industrial system,excessive dependence on exporting energy resources,deep involvement to the Russian economy,and high degree of economic and financial dollarization in this region makes the relevant countries highly vulnerable to fluctuations in the international energy market and Russian economy.The decline in oil prices and the downturn economy of Russia from 2014 have had a serious influence on the region’s economy and finance.This paper analyzes the influences and countermeasures of the external shocks on the economy and finance of the region,concluding that since 2014 the external shocks have mainly had an influence on economic growth through these four dimensions:export reduction,sharp decline in overseas remittances,increasing debts and the depreciation of exchange rate,and its influences spread from the economic industries to financial industries.The response to the external shocks reveals that there still exist many shortcomings in the disposal of the economic and financial crisis in these countries,which can be strengthened from the aspects of economic and financial diversification,financial support for economic inclusive growth and establishment of a sound legal system.China should focus on promoting economy and trade,finance,and regulatory in strengthening cooperation with countries in the CCA region.

关 键 词：中亚 高加索 侨汇 汇率 美元化 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F831[经济管理—世界经济]