国家风险是否会影响资本管制强度?——国际经验与中国实践  

Does Country Risk Affect the Intensity of Capital Controls?——International Experience and Chinese Practice

作　　者：黄新飞 廉胜南 邱婉萍 胡韫珂 Huang Xinfei;Lian Shengnan;Qiu Wanping;Hu Yunke

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际金融学院 [2]深圳市南山区前海管理局 [3]澳门科技大学商学院,中国

出　　处：《金融学季刊》2022年第4期1-22,共22页Quarterly Journal of Finance

摘　　要：国家风险是资本管制强度的重要影响因素。本文通过构建67个经济体1997—2015年的跨国面板数据,实证检验了国家风险是否对一国资本管制强度产生重要影响。研究发现:国家风险和资本管制强度存在显著的正相关关系,国家风险越高,一国越可能收紧资本管制强度。进一步研究发现,国家风险中银行风险对资本管制强度的影响最大,在2008年全球金融危机发生之后,国家风险对资本管制强度的影响有所提高,对非欧盟经济体和收入水平较低的非OECD国家而言,国家风险对资本管制强度的影响更为明显。我们在稳健性检验中替换了关键指标的衡量方法和模型估计方法,基准回归结论依然成立。Country risk is an important factor influencing the intensity of capital controls.This paper empirically examines whether country risk has a significant impact on the intensity of capital controls in a country by constructing cross-country panel data of 67 economies from 1997 to 2015.The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between country risk and intensity capital controls.The higher the country risk is,the more likely a country is to tighten intensity capital controls.Further research finds that bank risk has the greatest impact on the intensity of capital controls among country rish,and after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008,the influence of country risk on the intensity of capital controls has increased,for non-EU economies and income level lower than the OECD countries,country risk for the influence of the intensity of capital controls is more obvious.We replaced the measurement method and model estimation method of key indicators in robustness test,and the benchmark regression result is still valid.

关 键 词：国家风险 资本管制 国际资本流动 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]