增值税税率简并政策的行业税负效应  

Industrial Tax Burden Effects of Value-added Tax Rate Simplification Policies

作　　者：方红生[1,2] 胡稳权 张旭飞 苏云晴 FANG Hongsheng;HU Wenquan;ZHANG Xufei;SU Yunqing(School of Economics,Zhejiang University;Institute for Fiscal Big⁃Data&Policy,Zhejiang University)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,310058 [2]浙江大学财税大数据与政策研究中心,310058

出　　处：《经济研究》2022年第7期136-152,共17页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD080);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金的资助

摘　　要：本文对增值税税率简并政策及其配套措施的行业税负效应进行了评估,并对其是否实现了主要行业税负明显降低和所有行业税负只减不增两大目标进行了回答。本文拓展了间接税税负转嫁模型,提出了新的行业税负效应评估方法,并利用投入产出表数据对三次税率简并政策及其配套措施的行业税负效应进行了全面评估。结果显示:(1)由于行业覆盖范围和法定税率下降程度存在差异,三次税率简并的税负效应相差较大,后两次简并的受益行业数量更广、整体减税幅度更大,但均无法使所有行业的税负只减不增或所有主要行业的税负明显降低;(2)增值税税率简并最终实现了较普遍的减税效果,不仅使大部分行业实现税负下降,也使大部分主要行业的税负明显降低,但仍有部分行业(尤其是服务业)的税负出现上升;(3)配套措施虽然成效显著,但仍无法确保所有行业税负只减不增,也无法使所有主要行业的税负都下降。本文还对2021年两会提案中两种进一步简并方案进行了评估,发现将13%税率调至9%,而9%和6%两档调至5%的三档并两档方案有着更好效果。The heavy tax burden has been an important factor restricting the development of enterprises.Therefore,tax reduction has always been a topic of particular concern to the market.Since 2015,China has implemented structural tax cuts and general fee reductions to reduce enterprises’burdens,especially for small and micro enterprises.Subsequent annual government work reports have taken tax and fee reduction as one of the essential issues.From 2017 to 2019,China has continued to promote the simplification of value-added tax(VAT)rates,trying to reduce the tax burden of major industries and ensure tax burdens across all industries go down.This paper evaluates the industry tax burden effects of the VAT rate simplification policies along with the supporting measures and answers whether it achieves the above two goals.The traditional VAT theory implies that VAT is a consumption tax,which can be ultimately passed on to consumers.However,a growing number of literature shows that the VAT is not entirely borne by consumers but shared between both consumers and producers.This paper extends the indirect tax burden shifting model and proposes a new assessment method of the industry tax burden.We use the input-output table data to comprehensively evaluate the industry tax burden effects of the three VAT rate simplification policies and their supporting measures.The research results of this paper are as follows.(1)There are wide divergence among the tax burden effects of the three policies due to the differences in the scope of industry coverage and degree of VAT rate reduction.The latter two simplification policies benefit more industries with a more significant overall tax reduction.However,neither of the three simplification policies reduces the tax burden of all industries or significantly reduces the tax burden of all major industries.(2)The simplification policies finally achieved relatively general tax reduction effects,reducing the tax burden of most industries and significantly reducing the tax burden of most major industr

关 键 词：增值税税率简并 配套措施 行业税负效应 两大目标 进一步简并 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]