二元市场、电子商务与商贸流通研究——基于分位数回归的实证分析  

Dual Market,E-commerce and Business Circulation——An Empirical Study Based on Quantile Regression

作　　者：王昕天(译) 荆林波[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院 [2]宁波大学商学院 [3]中国社会科学评价研究院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第11期26-31,209,共7页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：浙江省省属高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(SJWY2022007)

摘　　要：近年来,中国商品流通市场在信息技术的作用下快速发展,线上电子商务市场与线下传统商贸市场呈现出明显的融合趋势。根据二元市场理论,线上市场和线下市场将从“此消彼长”转向“互融互促”,但该假设缺乏中国实践经验的佐证。此外,市场内部区域异质性问题尚未得到充分关注。本文以中国线上和线下市场的关系为研究对象,采用分位数回归方法对2011-2020年中国各省线上贸易和线下贸易进行分析。结果表明:在线下商贸交易量较低的水平上,电子商务交易量对其具有正向作用,这种正向作用与经济发展水平呈正比;在线下商贸交易量较高的水平上,电子商务交易量对其具有负向作用,这种负向作用与经济发展水平呈正比。一方面,本文拓展了二元市场理论,为中国实践表现出的“互融互促”提供实证证据;另一方面,提出传统商贸流通业转型要充分发挥线下服务能力优势等建议,以应对电子商务对传统商贸流通业的冲击。In recent years,China’s commodity circulation market has developed rapidly under the influence of information technology,and the online e-commerce market and the offline traditional business market have shown a clear trend of integration.According to the dual market theory,the online market and the offline market will shift from"one-off"to"mutual integration and mutual promotion",but this assumption lacks evidence from China’s practical experience.Furthermore,the issue of regional heterogeneity within markets has not received sufficient attention.This paper takes the relationship between China’s online and offline markets as the research object,and uses the quantile regression method to analyze the online trade and offline trade of various provinces in China from 2011 to 2020.The results show that:at a lower level of offline business transaction volume,e-commerce transaction volume has a positive effect on it,which is proportional to the level of economic development;At a higher level of offline business transaction volume,e-commerce transaction volume has a negative effect on it,which is directly proportional to the level of economic development.On the one hand,this paper expands the dual market theory to provide empirical evidence for the"mutual integration and mutual promotion"shown in China’s practice;The impact of e-commerce on the traditional commercial circulation industry.

关 键 词：二元市场 电子商务 商贸流通 线上线下融合 

分 类 号：F724[经济管理—产业经济]