代表性突发水污染情景的层级化涌现机制  

HIERARCHICAL EMERGENCE MECHANISM OF REPRESENTATIVE SUDDEN WATER POLLUTION SCENARIOS

作　　者：李建勋[1] 仇池 王超[1] 李庆 Li Jianxun;Qiu Chi;Wang Chao;Li Qing(School of Economics and Management,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学经济与管理学院,西安710054

出　　处：《环境工程》2023年第S02期1167-1172,1177,共7页Environmental Engineering

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2021JM-348)

摘　　要：由于突发水污染事件情景的多样性和复杂性,决策者难以围绕单个微观的情景建立处置战略,而往往需要从代表性微观情景所涌现出的宏观情景来快速地把握事件的主体信息。为此,建立微观代表性情景的刻画方法和包络区域形式化表示方法,避免传统侧重于知识元模型的情景构建或演化风险的过度抽象,将代表性突发水污染事件中主要特征的映射关系与情景要素引入到研究框架,并构建宏观情景的层级化涌现方案,借助包络区域的映射关系集,形成微观代表性情景为支撑不同层级决策的宏观情景的聚合机制。在辽河流域太子河柳马段COD浓度超标事件进行验证,实验结果表明:在不同粒度情景下本文提出的涌现机制体现出了层级化的水污染事件主体信息,为应急响应辅助决策和关键信息获取提供技术支持。ion of scenario construction or evolution risks that traditionally focus on the knowledge element model.The mapping relationship of main features and scenario elements in representative water pollution emergencies are introduced into the research framework,and the hierarchical emergence scheme of macro scenarios is constructed.With the help of the mapping relationship set of envelope regions,The formation of micro representative scenarios is the aggregation mechanism of macro scenarios supporting decisions at different levels.The empirical study on the COD concentration exceeding standard event in Liuma section of Taizi River in Liaohe River basin has verified the effectiveness and practicability of the model method,which can aggregate the main information of representative water pollution emergencies through hierarchical emergence,providing technical support for emergency response auxiliary decision-making and key information acquisition.

关 键 词：代表性情景 包络区域 宏观涌现 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程]