论大学发展的不确定性  

On the Uncertainty of University Development

作　　者：王建华[1] WANG Jian-hua(School of Educational Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210097,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学教育科学学院,江苏南京210097

出　　处：《高等教育研究》2022年第6期1-12,共12页Journal of Higher Education

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(教育学)一般项目(BIA200187)

摘　　要：大学发展受多种因素的综合影响,具有不确定性,不完全是人为努力或理性选择的结果。一所大学,无论是加速发展、维持现状还是衰落,都难以避免偶然性因素的影响。偶然性是客观的可能性,并非可以消除的“杂音”,它在确定性之外为大学发展提供了非意图的结果。偶然性的不可消除提醒我们,大学发展必须充分考虑可控的与不可控的、意料之中和意料之外的多种因素的综合影响。大学的永续发展一方面取决于对大学发展规律的理性认识和科学决策,另一方面则受偶然性的影响;改革既要关注大学发展的一般规律,也要关注那些可能被“正常进程”掩盖的偶发事件。The university development is affected by many factors,which is uncertain.It is not entirely the result of human efforts or rational choices.Whether a university accelerates its development,maintains the status quo or declines,which is difficult to avoid the influence of accidental factors.Contingency is an objective possibility,not a“noise”that can be eliminated.It provides unintended results for university development beyond certainty.It reminds us that university development must fully consider the comprehensive influence of controllable and uncontrollable,expected and unexpected factors.On the one hand,the sustainable development of universities depends on the rational understanding and scientific decision-making;on the other hand,it is determined by contingency.It should pay attention to the general law of university development,and the occasional events that may be covered up by the“normal process”.

关 键 词：大学发展 确定性 不确定性 

分 类 号：G640[文化科学—高等教育学]