中部地区城市收缩的识别与影响因素研究  

Research on the Identification and Influencing Factors of Urban Shrinkage in the Central Region

作　　者：邹泽铎 石妞 赵威[1] 卢荣旺 孙亚茹 吕寒寒 陈玫合 何志啸 游谋 张文文 付灿芳 ZOU Zeduo;SHI Niu;ZHAO Wei;LU Rongwang;SUN Yaru;LYU Hanhan;CHEN Meihe;HE Zhixiao;YOU Mou;ZHANG Wenwen;FU Canfang(College of Geography and Environmental Science/Research Center of Regional Development and Planning/Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions,Ministry of Education,Henan University,Henan Kaifeng 475004,China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学地理与环境学院/区域发展与规划研究中心/黄河中下游数字地理技术教育部重点实验室,河南开封475004

出　　处：《河南大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第5期518-530,共13页Journal of Henan University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41271144)

摘　　要：从人口、经济、社会与空间等维度构建系统的综合指标体系,运用全局空间自相关、标准差椭圆分析、核密度分析和灰色关联分析等方法,分别从单维度和多维度对2008-2018年中部地区80个地级市收缩水平进行测度,进而探讨中部地区城市收缩的影响因素.研究表明:(1)单维度收缩识别可知,山西省和江西省未出现城市收缩现象,河南省和湖北省收缩幅度较小,不足半数,而湖南省与安徽省的各地级市在单维度识别下收缩比较明显.(2)多维度收缩测度可知,中部地区城市收缩的地级市共有14个,安徽省各城市收缩较为集中.(3)从空间分布形态分析,单维度城市收缩的空间分布主趋势呈东北-西南方向分布,多分布于河南省和安徽省;多维度城市收缩的空间分布主趋势呈西北—东南方向分布,分布较为分散.(4)通过灰色关联度对14个影响城市收缩的因素进行分析,其中人口结构变化对城市收缩的影响力最大;区域投资与产出对城市收缩有突出贡献;劳动力与就业结构对城市收缩有次要影响.实证研究结果可为中部地区城市发展的规划布局提供重要的案例证据.The study constructs a systematic comprehensive index system from the dimensions of population,economy,society and space,and uses the methods of global spatial autocorrelation,standard deviation ellipse analysis,kernel density analysis and grey correlation analysis to measure the contraction level of 80 prefecture level cities in the central region from 2008 to 2018,so as to explore the influencing factors of urban contraction in the central region.The research shows that:(1)According to the single dimension contraction identification,there is no urban contraction in Shanxi Province and Jiangxi Province,and the contraction range of Henan Province and Hubei Province is small,less than half,while the contraction of local cities in Hunan Province and Anhui Province is more obvious under the single dimension identification.(2)According to the multi-dimensional shrinkage measurement,there are 14 prefecture level cities in the central region,and the shrinkage of cities in Anhui Province is relatively concentrated.(3)From the analysis of spatial distribution,the main trend of spatial distribution of single-dimensional urban contraction is northeast-southwest,and most of them are in Henan and Anhui Provinces.The main trend of spatial distribution of multi-dimensional urban contraction is northwest-southeast.The distribution is relatively scattered.(4)14 factors influencing urban shrinkage are analyzed through gray correlation degree,among which population change has the greatest influence on urban shrinkage;regional economic development has a prominent contribution;labor force and employment structure have a secondary influence on urban shrinkage.

关 键 词：城市收缩 识别 空间分析 影响因素 中部地区 

分 类 号：F292[经济管理—国民经济]