基于房价失调与房价增长惯性的利率时变反应研究  

Research on the Time⁃varying Response of Interest Rate Based on House Price Misalignment and House Price Growth Inertia

作　　者：朱奎全[1] 郭凯[1,2] 陈志远 ZHU Kuiquan;GUO Kai;CHEN Zhiyuan(School of Finance,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Qingdao Institute of Finance,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Qingdao 266105,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学金融学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学青岛金融研究院,山东青岛266105

出　　处：《产业组织评论》2022年第4期117-133,共17页Industrial Organization Review

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金项目“金融稳定、前瞻性扩展货币政策规则与不确定性:基于LRE模型的实证分析与检验研究”(18YJA790027);辽宁省教育厅高校基本科研面上项目“基于适应性学习与内生时变的我国利率形成机制、结构性货币政策空间与政策效应”(LJKMR20221562);东北财经大学科研平台研究能力提升专项课题“辽宁促发展与防风险的平衡关系研究——基于地方债的视角”(PT-Z202204)

摘　　要：本文通过将房价失调和房价增长惯性引入货币政策反应方程,实证分析了短期市场利率对房价失调与房价增长惯性的时变反应特征。研究结果表明:其一,短期市场利率对房价失调与房价增长惯性均具有间接反应特征。其二,在房价失调方面,短期市场利率重点关注适应性预期房价失调,而非理性预期房价失调,表明以利率为代表的价格型货币政策工具调控偏向于稳定适应性预期房价失调。其三,在房价失调与房价增长惯性方面,短期市场利率侧重于关注适应性预期房价失调和房价增长惯性。相比较于房价增长惯性,短期市场利率更倾向于关注适应性预期房价失调,表明以利率为代表的价格型货币政策工具调控更加偏向于稳定适应性预期房价失调,且货币政策调控较为关注已发生的房价波动影响因素。This paper empirically analyzes the time⁃varying response of short⁃term market interest rates to the misalignment of housing prices and the inertia of housing price growth by introducing the misalignment of housing prices and the iner⁃tia of housing price growth into the monetary policy response equation.The research results show that:First,the short⁃term market interest rate has an indirect response to both the misalignment of housing prices and the inertia of housing price growth.Second,in terms of housing price misalignment,the short⁃term market interest rate focuses on the adaptive expected housing price misalignment,but the irrational ex⁃pected housing price misalignment,indicating that the price monetary policy tool represented by interest rate is biased to stabilize the adaptive expected housing price misalignment.Third,in terms of housing price misalignment and housing price growth inertia,the short⁃term market interest rate focuses on the adaptability of ex⁃pected housing price misalignment and housing price growth inertia.Compared with the inertia of housing price growth,the short⁃term market interest rate is more in⁃clined to pay attention to the adaptive expected housing price misalignment,indica⁃ting that the price monetary policy tool represented by the interest rate is more in⁃clined to stabilize the adaptive expected housing price misalignment,and the mone⁃tary policy regulation pays more attention to the factors affecting the existing housing price fluctuations.

关 键 词：货币政策 短期市场利率 房价失调 房价增长惯性 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F822.0