融资约束、开发商预期与城市土地出让价格变动——基于261个地级市数据的检验  

Financing Constraints,Developers’Expectations and Changes in Urban Land Transfer Price——Based on Data of 261 Prefecture-level Cities

作　　者：周建龙 ZHOU Jianlong(Dongbei University of Finance&Economics,School of Business Administration,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学工商管理学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《产业组织评论》2022年第2期115-131,共17页Industrial Organization Review

摘　　要：本文将融资硬约束引入房地产商土地竞拍福利均衡模型中,考察了以“三道红线”为代表的融资硬约束与房价预期对城市土地竞拍价格的影响,并基于261个地级市数据进行了实证检验。结论表明,融资硬约束确实影响房地产商土地竞拍策略,并显著负相关于土地价格,而开发商房价乐观预期会对土地价格上涨形成正向冲击。由于融资硬约束具有更强的边际影响效应,这种对立性冲击结构下,房价、地价叠加变动机制被有效瓦解,房价高企的同时,土地价格在融资硬约束冲击下出现了下降。进一步的异质性分析表明,融资硬约束与房价预期对土地价格的冲击依城市规模分布呈现出典型差异性。中小城市中“三道红线”的负债监管对土地价格的冲击更大。最后,本文就我国未来房地产调控政策的设计提出了相关建议。This paper introduces the financing hard constraint into the welfare equilibrium model of real estate developers’land auction,investigates the impact of financing hard constraint and house price expectation represented by“three red lines”on urban land auction price,and makes an empirical test based on the data of 261 prefecture level cities.The conclusion shows that the financing hard constraint does affect the land bidding strategy of real estate developers,and is significantly negatively related to the land price,while the optimistic expectation of developers’house price will have a positive impact on the rise of land price.Due to the stronger marginal effect of financing hard constraints,under this antagonistic impact structure,the superposition and change mechanism of house prices and low prices has been effectively disintegrated.While house prices are high,land prices have declined under the impact of financing hard constraints.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of financing hard constraints and house price expectations on land prices shows typical differences according to the distribution of city size.The debt regulation of“three red lines”in small and medium-sized cities has a greater impact on land prices.Finally,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions on the design of China’s future real estate regulation policy.

关 键 词：融资硬约束 开发商预期 土地价格 三道红线 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F832.4