利用CORS网的地面稳定性变化监测与数值预报方法  

Monitoring and numerical prediction of ground stability changes using CORS network

作　　者：王伟[1] 章传银[1] 史珂 党亚民[1] 张鹏[3] 杨强[1] WANG Wei;ZHANG Chuanyin;SHI Ke;DANG Yamin;ZHANG Peng;YANG Qiang(Chinese Academy of Surveying&Mapping,Beijing 100036,China;Basic Surveying and Mapping Technology Center of Yunnan,Kunming 650034,China;National Geomatics Center of China,Beijing 100036,China)

机构地区：[1]中国测绘科学研究院,北京100036 [2]云南省基础测绘技术中心,昆明650034 [3]国家基础地理信息中心,北京100036

出　　处：《测绘科学》2022年第8期45-51,93,共8页Science of Surveying and Mapping

基　　金：中国测绘科学研究院基本科研业务费项目(AR2114,AR2210);国家自然科学基金项目(408741221,42174013);自然资源部海洋环境探测技术与应用重点实验室开放基金重点课题项目(MESTA-2020-A001)

摘　　要：针对地质灾害危险区的空间分布、联动关系与时间演变态势的监测,该文提出利用地面稳定性变化监测和数值预报方法开展相关研究。以连续运行参考站(CORS)网为控制,融合水文气象等多源数据,反演获得区域几何、物理形变场模型,进一步构建地面稳定性降低的规律准则,实现地面稳定性变化监测和数值预报。通过解译地面稳定性降低现象的出现地点与时间、空间分布与时间演变,揭示地质灾害危险区的空间分布、联动关系和时间演变规律,并在滇西地区开展了应用试点。研究发现,利用CORS网的地面稳定性变化监测和数值预报方法,能够有效把握危险区分布动态、联动关系与时间演变规律,可为地质灾害风险评价、隐患点和风险区双控、孕灾过程和成灾规律认知提供科学依据。In view of the monitoring of the spatial distribution,linkage and temporal evolution of geophysical hazard risk areas,this paper proposed to use ground stability change monitoring and numerical prediction methods to carry out relevant research.This paper took continuously operating reference stations(CORS)network as the control,integrates multi-source data such as hydrometeorology,obtained the regional geometric and physical deformation field model by inversion,and further constructed the law criterion of ground stability criterion,so as to realize the monitoring and numerical prediction of ground stability changes.By interpreting the occurrence place and time,spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the phenomenon of reduced ground stability,the spatial distribution,linkage and temporal evolution law of geological disaster risk areas were revealed,and an application pilot was carried out in western Yunnan province.It was found that the monitoring and numerical prediction methods of ground stability changes using CORS network could effectively grasp the distribution dynamics,linkage relationship and time evolution law of hazard areas,and could provide scientific basis for geological hazard risk assessment,control of hidden danger points and risk areas,disaster preparation process and disaster formation law cognition.

关 键 词：地面稳定性变化 危险区 地质灾害 形变监测 数值预报 

分 类 号：P228.4[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程] P694[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]