基于基本再生数和实时再生数的中国陆路接壤国家新冠肺炎疫情现况评估  

Assessment of COVID-19 epidemic of China’s land crossing countries based on basic and real-time regeneration numbers

作　　者：曾津萍 韩俊德 吴茵茵[1] ZENG Jin-ping;HAN Jun-de;WU Yin-yin(School of Public Health,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310000,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学公共卫生学院,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》2022年第5期366-371,共6页Chinese Journal of Frontier Health and Quarantine

摘　　要：目的评估2020—2021年中国周边13个国家新冠肺炎疫情发展趋势以及从我国边境地区输入的风险。方法根据Our World in Data官网每日更新的新冠肺炎疫情数据,结合SIR模型、SEIR模型和时间依赖法,对中国陆地接壤的13个周边国家进行综合分析,评估各国新冠肺炎疫情传播态势和输入风险。结果俄罗斯、巴基斯坦、印度、越南、哈萨克斯坦的新冠肺炎累计确诊病例已超百万,蒙古、越南两国的感染率β最高,印度、巴基斯坦等国移除率γ较低,老挝和塔吉克斯坦致病率δ最高。周边13个国家基本再生数仍在1以上,说明周边国家新冠肺炎疫情传播仍呈上升趋势;周边各国实时再生数都有较大的波动,老挝、塔吉克斯坦、蒙古等国实时再生数最大峰值远超10以上。结论我国周边多国新冠肺炎疫情呈上升趋势,我国边境地区输入风险较高,需加强疫情防控与监测。针对周边各国疫情发展趋势和风险制定相关隔离措施。Objective To assess the development trend of COVID-19 of 2020-2021 in 13 neighboring countries of China and the import risk to China’s border areas.Methods Based on the COVID-19 epidemic data update daily on Our World in Data website,and combined with SIR model,SEIR model and time-dependent method,a comprehensive analysis was conducted on 13 neighboring countries bordering China,to assess the situation of the spread of COVID-19 and the risk of imported COVID-19 from each country.Results The cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Russia,Pakistan,India,Vietnam and Kazakhstan had exceeded one million.The infection rateβwas the highest in Mongolia and Vietnam,the removal rateγwas low in India and Pakistan,and the incidence rateδwas the highest in Laos and Tajikistan.Moreover,the basic regeneration number of 13neighboring countries was still above 1,indicated that the spread of COVID-19 in neighboring countries was still on the rise.The real-time regeneration numbers of neighboring countries had great fluctuation,and the maximum peak value of real-time regeneration numbers in Laos,Tajikistan,Mongolia was far more than 10.Conclusion The COVID-19 epidemic was on the rise in neighboring countries,and the risk of imported cases was high in border areas of China,which requires constant vigilance,epidemic prevention,control and surveillance.It is suggested that entry quarantine policies be adjusted in different COVID-19 trends and risk situations of different countries.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎 SIR模型 SEIR模型 时间依赖法 陆路接壤国家 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.8[医药卫生—内科学]