Epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis incidence and its macro-influence factors in Chinese mainland during 2014-2021  

作　　者：Le-le Deng Fei Zhao Zhuo-wei Li Wei-wei Zhang Guang-xue He Xiang Ren 

机构地区：[1]National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China [2]Department of Pharmacy,Beijing Hospital,National Center of Gerontology,Institute of Geriatric Medicine,Chinese Academy of Medical Science,Beijing Key Laboratory of Drug Clinical Risk and Personalized Medication Evaluation,Beijing 100730,China [3]Miyun District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 101500,China [4]School Of Public Health,Binzhon Medical University,Yantai 264000,China [5]Division of Infectious Disease,Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning On Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China

出　　处：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》2024年第3期43-57,共15页贫困所致传染病（英文）

基　　金：funded by grants from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(102393220020010000017)

摘　　要：Background Tuberculosis(TB)remains a pressing public health issue,posing a significant threat to individuals'well-being and lives.This study delves into the TB incidence in Chinese mainland during 2014-2021,aiming to gain deeper insights into their epidemiological characteristics and explore macro-level factors to enhance control and prevention.Methods TB incidence data in Chinese mainland from 2014 to 2021 were sourced from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System(NNDRS).A two-stage distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM)was constructed to evaluate the lag and non-linearity of daily average temperature(℃,Atemp),average relative humidity(%,ARH),average wind speed(m/s,AWS),sunshine duration(h,SD)and precipitation(mm,PRE)on the TB incidence.A spatial panel data model was used to assess the impact of demographic,medical and health resource,and economic factors on TB incidence.Results A total of 6,587,439 TB cases were reported in Chinese mainland during 2014-2021,with an average annual incidence rate of 59.17/100,000.The TB incidence decreased from 67.05/100,000 in 2014 to 46.40/100,000 in 2021,notably declining from 2018 to 2021(APC=-8.87%,95%CI:-11.97,-6.85%).TB incidence rates were higher among males,farmers,and individuals aged 65 years and older.Spatiotemporal analysis revealed a significant cluster in Xinjiang,Qinghai,and Xizang from March 2017 to June 2019(RR=3.94,P<0.001).From 2014 to 2021,the proportion of etiologically confirmed cases increased from 31.31%to 56.98%,and the time interval from TB onset to diagnosis shortened from 26 days(IQR:10-56 days)to 19 days(IQR:7-44 days).Specific meteorological conditions,including low temperature(<16.69℃),high relative humidity(>71.73%),low sunshine duration(<6.18 h)increased the risk of TB incidence,while extreme low wind speed(<2.79 m/s)decreased the risk.The spatial Durbin model showed positive associations between TB incidence rates and sex ratio(β=1.98),number of beds in medical and health institutions per 10,000 population(β=0.90),and total health e

关 键 词：TUBERCULOSIS SURVEILLANCE Epidemiological characteristics INCIDENCE Influence factor Distributed lag nonlinear model(DLNM) Spatial panel model China 

分 类 号：R52[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]