枸杞炭疽病预测方法研究  

Study on the Forecasting Method and Forecasting Model about Collerotrichum gloeosporioides Penz

作　　者：马国飞[1] 张磊[1] 刘静[1] 张晓煜[1] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,银川750002

出　　处：《北方果树》2007年第4期3-5,共3页Northern Fruits

基　　金：科技部社会公益项目"宁夏枸杞炭疽病发生和爆发流行的气象条件关系及预报方法研究"(2002DIB50127)资助

摘　　要：气象条件是影响枸杞炭疽病发生蔓延的主要因素之一。该文以“宁杞一号”为试材,整理分析枸杞炭疽病发生期间主要气象因子,并通过逐步回归预测方法建立预测模型,入选的主要因子有空气温度(X1)、最低空气温度(X2)、温湿比(X3)、湿雨比(X4)和初始病情(X5)。经对预测方程检验,结果显著,历史拟合准确率为76.5%。The meteorological condition affects the Collerotrichum gloeosporioides Penz to have one of development primary factors,The paper as supplies take 'Number 1 L.barbarum Linn' as the material,Analysis Collerotrichum gloeosporioides Penz period main meteorological factor,And through stepwise variable establishment forecasting model,The selected main factor include the month average temperature(X1),the most low altitude temperature(X2),the ratio of temperature to ralative(X3),the ratio of relative humidity to precipitation(X4),and the initial disease index(X5),After to forecast the equation examination result is remarkable,historical fitting rate of accuracy in 76.5%.

关 键 词：枸杞炭疽病 气象条件 预报 

分 类 号：S435.671[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]