河南省小麦锈病发生面积与降水量的关系研究  

Study on the Relationship Between Wheat Rust in Area and Precipitation in Henan

作　　者：刘伟昌[1] 陈怀亮[1] 张雪芬[1] 陈战锋[2] 徐爱东[1] 易亮[3] 

机构地区：[1]河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450003 [2]河南省植保植检站,郑州450002 [3]信阳市气象局,河南信阳464000

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2007年第3期24-28,共5页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

摘　　要：在研究河南省小麦锈病发生发展特点的基础上,利用相关分析方法,普查出与锈病关系密切的关键旬降水因子。在对锈病进行小波分析后发现,未来8 a内锈病发生的总体趋势偏重,3 a内锈病发生程度将低于平均水平。同时,对关键旬降水量也利用小波进行了分析。最后,采用多元回归方法建立了河南省锈病发生面积与关键降水单元的关系模型。Fully considering the characteristic of Henan wheat rust,using correlation analysis method,the key dekad precipitation factor which is close relationship with rust is found.The wavelet analysis shows the next 8 years rust occurrence will aggravate,and the next 3 years rust occurrence degree will be lower than the average lever.At the same time,the key dekad precipitation has also analyzed by using the wavelet.Finally,the relationship model between rust in area and the key precipitation unit in Henan is established by using the multi-dimensional return method.

关 键 词：小麦 锈病 降水 回归分析 

分 类 号：S435.121.4[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]