大到暴雪天气模型及数值产品释用预报方法  

Weather Model of Heavy Snow and Snowstorm and Application and Interpretation of Numerical Forecasting Products

作　　者：常军[1] 李祯[2] 布亚林[3] 李素萍[3] 刘莎[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南省气候中心,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象台,郑州450003 [3]河南省专业气象台,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2007年第3期54-56,共3页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

摘　　要：用欧洲数值预报产品格点资料,对1986年11月-2002年3月河南省出现的87个大到暴雪个例进行对比分析,将大到暴雪划分为3个类型,即高原低槽型、阻高-横槽型和L型,对每个型进行合成平均,建立了大到暴雪的天气学概念模型。为提高样本中大到暴雪的概率,先将样本进行消空处理,然后选取物理意义清晰、天气学意义明确的预报因子,分别建立了全省分片大到暴雪1-7 d预报方法,在业务试应用中取得了较好的预报效果。Using the grid data from ECMWF numerical forecast products,87 examples of heavy snow and snowstorm in Henan province from November of 1986 to March of 2002 are analyzed,which are divided into three styles such as plateau low trough,blocking high pressure-transverse trough,and L style.Weather conceptual model of heavy snow and snowstorm is built up by using composite analysis to analyze mean features.Firstly,the sample is carried out elimination disposal in order to increase the probability of heavy snow and snowstorm of the sample.And then forecast factors with physical and synoptic meaning are selected.Forecast method of heavy snow and snowstorm in each portion of Henan province is established,which is applied to the operational system,and the results indicate effective.

关 键 词：大到暴雪 天气学概念模型 数值产品释用 预报因子 

分 类 号：P456.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]