全球变暖背景下的广东省降水量及旱、涝变化趋势  

Precipitation and Drought/Flood Trends in Guangdong under the Background of Global Warming

作　　者：陈特固[1] 曾侠[2] 张江勇[1] 刘爱君[2] 钱光明[2] 余克服[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南海海洋研究所,广东广州510301 [2]广东省气候与农业气象中心,广东广州510080

出　　处：《广东气象》2007年第1期5-10,15,共7页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40231009);科技部重大基础研究前期研究专项(2002CC年02700)

摘　　要：分析粤港澳7个气象站近100年来降水量变化趋势,并对其与全球气候变暖的关系进行分析.结果表明:广东省全年及前、后汛期的降水量变化存在2～7年、10年和30年左右的周期;广东省雨量的长期变化与全球气候变暖不存在一致性,但近期气候变暖和广东的重旱、重涝事件频率增加有关;目前,广东的年降水量处于长期变化中的峰值下滑趋势,预估2020年处于少雨时期,沿海地区重旱、轻旱出现频率增加.Trend analysis is conducted on the precipitation during last near century to investigate its relationship with global warming.The result shows that there exist cycles of 2-7ys,10a and 30a in precipitation of annual,Apr.-Jun.and Jul.-Sep.rainy seasons,and that the long-term trend of precipitation in Guangdong isn't in accord with global warming,while the increasing frequency of severe drought/flood events can be related to recent climate warming.The annual precipitation of Guangdong is currently falling into a decline from the peak in a long-term cycle,and thus it is forecasted that the time around 2020 would be a period of low precipitation.

关 键 词：气候学 近百年降水量 旱涝 变化趋势 广东省 

分 类 号：P463.24[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]