三角模糊数的模糊因果图研究  

Fuzzy causality diagram with triangular fuzzy number

作　　者：梁新元[1] 石庆喜[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学计算机科学与信息工程学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《仪器仪表学报》2006年第z3期2495-2498,共4页Chinese Journal of Scientific Instrument

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(59677009);中国教育部博士点基金(99061116);重庆市自然科学基金(8084)

摘　　要：因果图理论是一种基于概率论的推理方法。本文在分析因果图理论发展和存在的问题基础上,将模糊数学引入因果图理论中,得到模糊因果图,从而可以克服因果图分析中概率难以精确赋值的缺点,将因果图理论应用扩大到了模糊领域。本文主要对事件概率为三角模糊数进行讨论,提出了模糊因果图的模糊算子,得到了模糊条件概率。研究表明:模糊因果图能有效地用于故障分析,比原来的因果图方法,具有更大的灵活性和适应性。Causality diagram is a probabilistic reasoning method. In this paper, fuzzy set theory was introduced to develop causality diagram methodology after discussing the development and the restriction of conventional causality diagram. Fuzzy causality diagram can overcome the shortcomings that are difficult to gain the accurate probability of the event in conventional causality diagram. The application of causality diagram is extended to fuzzy field by introducing fuzzy set theory. Based on the triangular fuzzy number, fuzzy operators and fuzzy conditional probability were discussed in this paper. The research indicates that fuzzy causality diagram is so effective in fault analysis, and it is more flexible and adaptive than conventional causality diagram.

关 键 词：因果图 模糊因果图 事件概率 模糊数 三角模糊数 

分 类 号：TH7-55[机械工程—仪器科学与技术]