厄尔尼诺现象及预测现状  

EL Nino EVENTS AND THE SITUATION OF IT'S PREDICTION

作　　者：王彰贵[1] 刘克威[1] 陈幸荣[1] 谭晶[1] 文岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋预报》2005年第z1期140-146,共7页Marine Forecasts

摘　　要：厄尔尼诺现象是目前发现的最明显气候异常信号。本文简短地介绍了厄尔尼诺的研究和预测现状,指出厄尔尼诺的预测水平还很低,其主要因素是:一、没有建立起全球立体的厄尔尼诺监测网;二、研究局限于热带太平洋或热带印度洋-太平洋;三、缺乏多尺度相互作用的深入研究。另外,本文描述了厄尔尼诺发生前热带太平洋大气-海洋环流异常的几个特征。El Ni?o Events is the most obviously signal of the climate anomaly. In this paper, we reviewed the condition of El Nino's analysis and predictions in the last few years, and point out that the level of El Ni?o's predictions is lower yet. We think the main reasons are: First, the global three-dimensional El Nino monitoring net isn't established yet; Second, all the researches are limited in tropical Pacific Ocean or the Indian- Pacific Ocean; Third, the multi-scale interaction researches are insufficient. We also introduce several characters of climate-ocean anomalies of tropical Pacific Ocean which occurred before the El Nino events in this paper.

关 键 词：厄尔尼诺 预测 预测系统 回顾 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学]