基于实物期权的药物研发项目投资决策分析  

An Analyze of Investment Decision-making of Medicine R&D Project Base on Real Option

作　　者：鲁鸽[1] 万建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学数学系,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《应用数学》2005年第S1期38-40,共3页Mathematica Applicata

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70071012)

摘　　要：本文结合药物开发投资项目的利润流不确定性和专利保护期限的不确定性,运用实物期权法,对药物开发项目进行分析,由或有债权分析方法推导出项目投资阈值,并做出相应典型数值分析.In this paper,we introduce real option approach to analyze the R%D project of medicine,and set up the model of the random time limit of patent protection.We consider the uncertainty of both profit flow and time limit of patent protection,and get the threshold value of investment by contingent claim approach.At last we analyze numerical answers to find some results.

关 键 词：药物开发 实物期权 专利保护期 

分 类 号：F407.7[经济管理—产业经济]