电力系统概率仿真算法的适用性研究  

Applicability of probabilistic simulation methods in the related analysis and evaluation of the power system

作　　者：李生虎[1] 丁明[1] 史慧杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学,电气与自动化工程学院,安徽,合肥,230009 合肥工业大学,电气与自动化工程学院,安徽,合肥,230009 合肥工业大学,电气与自动化工程学院,安徽,合肥,230009

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2004年第7期804-864,共1页Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(59977004)

摘　　要：文章讨论了在电力系统概率安全经济评估中,基于蒙特卡罗抽样的非序贯仿真和序贯仿真的算法实现及相应的风险评估指标,分析了两种算法得到风险指标的差异及影响因素、风险指标的收敛性及准确性以及序贯仿真的应用范围.针对概率安全经济分析中的不同模块,提出适用的概率仿真算法,并提出在后续研究中尚待解决的关键问题.The principles and algorithms of non-sequential simulation and sequential simulation which are based on the Monte Carlo sampling technique are described. With the two kinds of simulation algorithms,the risk indices are calculated and compared,and an analysis of the convergence and accuracy of the risk indices is also made.The sequential simulation algorithm is suitable for dealing with the time-variant load and constraints and the dynamic process. Appropriate simulation schemes are suggested for executing various modules in the probabilistic security evaluation and economic evaluation.

关 键 词：电力系统 概率仿真 序贯仿真 非序贯仿真 蒙特卡罗抽样 

分 类 号：N55[自然科学总论]