城市公共交通需求预测及应用  

Forecasting of urban public transportation demand and application

作　　者：瞿尔仁[1] 潘莉[1] 张乾坤 任国红[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木建筑工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥市市政设计研究院,安徽合肥230001

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》2004年第12期1612-1616,共5页Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science

摘　　要：文章在综述了公共交通需求预测基本理论的基础上 (包括预测的基本前期工作 ,四阶段模型法等 ) ,结合巢湖市公共交通规划 ,对出行生成、出行分布、交通方式划分、交通分配 4个阶段所采用的需求预测常规模型 (方法 )的应用作了具体的说明。同时 ,还介绍了一种组合预测模型 (方法 ) ,这种模型旨在减少预测风险 。The traditional theory and common methods of forecasting the public transportation demand are reviewed,and the public transportation forecasting and planning of Chaohu City is presented as an application example. The four forecasting stages are illuminated which include trip generation, trip distribution, transportation mode classification and traffic assignment,and the application of the traditional forecasting models in accordance with the four stages is described. In order to reduce the risk of forecasting and increase the accuracy of forecasting effectively, a compound forecasting method is also introduced.

关 键 词：城市公共交通 交通需求预测 组合预测模型 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]