捕获-再捕获法在艾滋病高危人群基数估计中的运用  

APPLICATIONS OF CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF SUB-POPULATION AT HIGH RISK FOR HIV/AIDS.

作　　者：王斌 程峰 梁伯衡[2] 栾荣生[2] 吕繁[3] 袁萍[2] 张大鹏[3] 杨春霞[2] 毛宇嵘[3] 曾刚[2] 罗雷[2] 王琳琅[2] 

机构地区：[1]中英性病艾滋病防治合作项目办公室,北京100050 [2]四川大学华西公共卫生学院 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心流行病室

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2004年第6期832-833,835,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：中英性病艾滋病防治合作项目资助项目课题 (0 2 H45 4)

摘　　要：目的 :探讨捕获 -再捕获法在艾滋病高危人群 (同性恋人群、暗娼人群和吸毒人群 )基数估计中的运用。方法 :通过发放标记物和问卷调查估计成都市同性恋人群基数 ;依据戒毒所登记资料 ,估计乐山市市中区吸毒人群基数。结果 :捕获 -再捕获法对成都市同性恋者基数估计分别是 1387、1372和 115 1人 ;对乐山市市中区吸毒人群的估计为 345 6人。结论 :运用捕获 -再捕获法对艾滋病高危人群进行估计经济易行 ,结果较为可靠 。Objective:To study the application of Capture -Recapture method in est imating the size of population in high-risk for AIDS. Methods:The si ze of homosexual population in Chengdu by handing out marks and questioning was estimated.The size of injection drug use population in Leshan downtown distric t was estimated b ased on the data of detoxic centers.Results:The results of c apture-recapture in estimating the homosexual population were 1387, 1372 and 1151 respectively. The result of estimating the size of injection drug use population in Leshan dow ntown district was 3546.Conclusion:It is economic and feasible to estimate the size of population in high-risk for HIV/AIDS by applying the Capture-Recaptur e method. The result is reliable and the method is fit in developing countries wh e re health resources are limited.

关 键 词：捕获-再捕获法 基数估计 艾滋病高危人群 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]