中国东北近50年干旱发展及对全球气候变暖的响应  

Arid Climate Trend over Northeastern China and Its Response to Global Warming

作　　者：谢安[1] 孙永罡[2] 白人海[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学大气科学系,北京100871 [2]黑龙江省气象台,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《地理学报》2003年第z1期75-82,共8页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G1999043405)~~

摘　　要：应用实测的降水、气温和土壤湿度资料,分析我国东北区(含黑龙江、吉林、辽宁三省和内蒙古自治区的东部)近50年干旱化的发展趋势.结果表明,用月平均气温和降水量的距平和均方差所构造的'大气干旱指数'以及土壤湿度都显示,近50年来整个东北区是向干旱发展的,1990年代中期以来这种干旱化趋势尤为明显;而东北西部亚干旱地区的干旱化相对更严重(特别是内蒙古东部的北半部).在亚干旱地区的气温和降水两个要素中,气温的升高对干旱化的作用可能更重要.在东北区的南部,近50年来的降水是略有增加,但仍有向干旱发展的趋势.这显然与全球气候变暖的大背景有关.为探讨东北区干旱的发展对全球气候变暖的响应,利用Jones等的1951～2000年全球平均气温资料和东北区25个站的大气干旱指数进行线性回归分析.结果表明,在全球平均温度上升1℃的情况下,中国东北区的干旱化程度要增加5～20%,最大的达到22%.这种形势应该引起我们的关注.The station data, including precipitation, air temperature and soil humidity are employed to investigate the arid climate trend for the past 50 years over northeastern China. 'Atmospheric drought index' is proposed based on monthly mean temperature and precipitation anomalies as well as mean variance. The variations in the index and soil humidity show that the arid situation gets deteriorated throughout the northeastern China, this arid trend is more significant since the mid-1990s, especially in semi-arid area located in northeastern Inner Mongolia. Air temperature increase plays a more important role than precipitation decrease does in terms of the formation of drought. Although rainfall has slightly increased over the southern part of northeastern China in recent 50 years, arid trend remains to be developing, which is obviously associated with global warming. The responses of aridity developing over northeastern China to the global warming are explored using linear regression analyses. The results show that under circumstance of global temperature increase by 1 o C the aridity extent will rise 5-20%, its maximum will reach 22%.

关 键 词：中国东北区 土壤湿度 大气干旱指数 干旱趋势 全球气候变暖 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]