秃病蚤蒙冀亚种与长爪沙鼠密度的状态空间模型  

Statespace model between Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi and population of Meriones unguiculatus

作　　者：李仲来[1] 余根坚[2] 陈德 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学数学系,北京100875 [2]福州大学数学系,福州市350002 [3]内蒙古包头市地方病防治办公室,包头014010

出　　处：《昆虫学报》2002年第z1期132-133,共2页Acta Entomologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目 ( 395 70 6 38)

摘　　要：给出了一个描述秃病蚤蒙冀亚种Nosopsylluslaevicepskuzenkovi与长爪沙鼠Merionesunguiculatus密度的状态空间模型 ,模型为xt+1 =- 0 336xt+0 0 5 7yt +0 10 7zt,yt+1 =0 5 86xt - 0 36 9yt - 0 2 74zt,zt+1 =0 189xt +0 2 47yt - 0 30 9zt,其中xt,yt 和zt 分别为t月份的沙鼠密度 ,巢秃病蚤和体秃病蚤指数。结果表明 ,模型能够较好地描述野外秃病蚤蒙冀亚种与长爪沙鼠间的关系 。This paper established a statespace simulation model of the monthly fluctuation patterns between the Nosopsyllus laeviceps kuzenkovi and Meriones unguiculatus. It consisted of the following formulas: x t+1 =-0.336x t+0.057y t+0.107z t, y t+1 =0.586x t-0.369y t-0.274z t, z t+1 =0.189x t+0.247y t-0.309z t, where x t is the population density of M. unguiculatus, y t and z t are respectively related to the burrow nest and the body flea index of N. l. kuzenkovi at t month. The simulation results exhibited satisfactory agreement with field data. The population density of M. unguiculatus was the main factor affecting the burrow nest flea index of N. l. kuzenkovi.

关 键 词：秃病蚤蒙冀亚种 长爪沙鼠 巢蚤指数 体蚤指数 种群密度 状态空间模型 

分 类 号：O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计] Q958.1[理学—数学] Q968.9[生物学—动物学]