石河子市建筑物群体、人员和经济损失动态震害预测及设防效益分析  

Dynamic prediction of earthquake disaster and analysis of seismic resistance benefit in Shihezi city

作　　者：宋立军[1] 尹力峰[1] 胡伟华[1] 唐丽华[1] 薛健[2] 邢佑宏 苗军[2] 陈伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]石河子市地震局,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《华南地震》2001年第4期50-57,共8页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：根据石河子市建筑物、人口、经济现状和社会发展情况 ,按照建筑物、人口和经济增长率 ,对石河子市未来 10年地震灾害损失和人员伤亡进行了动态预测 ,结果表明 ,一方面由于经济的发展和人口的增加 ,将有更多的社会财富和人口将受潜在破坏性地震的威胁 ,绝对经济损失将不断增加 ;另一方面 ,由于新建的设防建筑物的增加 ,建筑物总体抗震能力不断增强 ,在相同地震烈度影响下 ,其相对经济损失和人员伤亡将不断减少。并对石河子市建筑物总体抗震能力、抗震设防的效益进行了初步分析。Based on census and annual statistic data of buildings the status of population and economic,situation of the social development in Shihezi city and their growth rate, dynamic prediction of loss from earthquake damage in future ten years in Shihezi city has been carried out. The result indicates that with the economic development and population growth, more and more social wealth and population will be endangered by potential destructive earthquake, so absolute loss will be increasing, while, with the growth of new earthquake-resistant buildings and earthquake resistant capability of overall buildings, relative losses will be decreasing in the same seismic intensity. Through the elementary analysis above,it is obvious that we will get economic and social benefit from seismic resistant buildings.

关 键 词：震灾预测 抗震设防 动态分析 石河子 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]