在役埋地压力管道可靠性分析技术研究——压力管道风险管理理论及其关键技术研究(5)  

Research on Reliability Analysis Technology of Underground Pressure Pipelines in Service——Theory and Key Technology of Pressure Pipeline Risk Management(5)

作　　者：李建华[1] 刘展[1] 王智平[1] 俞树荣[1] 李霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学甘肃省有色金属新材料国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730050

出　　处：《石油化工设备》2008年第3期1-4,共4页Petro-Chemical Equipment

基　　金：国家质检总局科研基金(国质检2003-354);甘肃省自然科学基金(ZS021-A25-016-G);甘肃省建设厅科研基金资助项目

摘　　要：在讨论埋地钢质管道腐蚀情况的基础上,假设坑蚀深度服从截尾极值分布,依据随机变量极小值的统计分布理论,提出了一种土壤环境下钢质管道可靠度的预测方法。研究了在定时截尾的寿命数据下,极值分布中形状参数α以及尺度参数β的极大似然估计。并且利用Matlab软件编程计算出参数α和β以及(0,t)内任何时刻的可靠度,从而初步建立了在役埋地压力管道可靠性分析技术。On the basis of discussion on the erosion of steel pipelines,a method of forecasting of reliability of steel pipeline was put forward.This method was based on that the depth of erosion was submitted to the extreme value of truncation and it was also based on random variable of minimum of the statistical distribution theory.The maximum estimation of similarity of shape parameter α and scale parameter β of the distribution of the extreme value were researched.Using software Matlab in programming,the calculation of parameter α and β at any time was achieved,thus preliminary reliability analysis technology of underground pressure pipeline was established.

关 键 词：压力管道 风险管理 可靠性 截尾极值 

分 类 号：TQ055.81[化学工程]