广州市至2020年城市客运交通发展情景分析  

Scenario Analysis of Passenger Traffic Development in Guangzhou Until 2020

作　　者：邱立勋[1,2] 陈愚[1,2] 赵黛青[1] 蔡国田[1] 陈勇[1] 胡秀莲[3] 姜克隽[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院广州能源研究所,广东广州510640 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100038 [3]国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第z1期114-118,共5页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：广东省软科学研究项目(2006B70103016)

摘　　要：社会经济的发展带动了交通需求的迅速增长,由此导致了城市机动车保有量的迅速增加,同时也加重了能源安全和环境污染问题。应用IPAC-AIM/Local模型,采用情景分析方法,在确保广州市客运交通需求正常增长的前提下,研究了以个体交通为主导和以公共交通为主导的两种发展模式,对未来能源需求和大气污染物排放的影响。研究结果表明,通过调整交通出行模式,大力发展公共交通能够显著减少能源需求,是保障能源安全和降低大气污染物排放量的有力举措。The development of social economy promotes the rapid growth in traffic demand,which leads to rapidly increasing of motor vehicles in the city,and aggravates the problems of energy security and environmental pollution. In a premise of normal growth of passenger traffic demand in Guangzhou,the model of IPAC-AIM/Local is used to study effect of two development models dominated separately by individual traffic and public transport on energy demand and atmospheric infectant emissions in the future by way of scenario analysis.The result indicates that through adjusting the traffic model,the sufficient development of public transport can reduce energy demand remarkably, in favor of guaranteeing energy security and reducing atmospheric infectant emissions.

关 键 词：IPAC-AIM/Local模型 情景分析 交通需求 能源需求 环境排放 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]