澜沧江跨境径流对气候变化的敏感性分析  

Transboundary flow change of the lancang river

作　　者：赵付竹[1] 张春花[1] 郝丽清 

机构地区：[1]海南省气象台,海南海口570203

出　　处：《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第S2期329-333,共5页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：利用月水量平衡水文模型,采取假定气候方案,分析了澜沧江跨境径流对气候变化的敏感性分析.结果表明,跨境径流量对降水变化的响应敏感,对气温变化的响应相对较弱;对模型参数Smax,ks,kg对模型效率指数的敏感性进行了分析,验证了模型参数Smax,ks,kg是能够通过计算机程序自动率定.The response of the transboundary flow in the Lancang valley to the climate change were studied with hypothetical scenarios using monthly water balance model.The results show that the transboundary flow in Lancang valley is more sensitive to precipitation change than that to more temperature change.The sensitivity of the three parameters(Smax,ks,kg) of the model to simulation efficiencies is analyzed,As a result,it is proved that Smax,ks and kg can be auto-verification by computer program.

关 键 词：澜沧江 跨境径流量 气候变化 月水量平衡水文模型 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]